Stocks股票 / Tech / ADBE
Adobe Inc. · Tech
ADBE US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Adobe Inc., formerly Adobe Systems Incorporated, is an American multinational computer software company based in San Jose, California.Adobe公司，前身为Adobe系统公司，是一家美国跨国计算机软件公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Large cap大盘 · $97B
Quality compounder优质复利股
Tech
S&P 500标普500
$234.74
-$2.51 · -1.06%
52w low52周低 $188high高 $377
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over). Don't…已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
59
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.9% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-16.6% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
60th percentile第60百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 27 analysts预期上调 — 27 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +11.8% (20d)财报后漂移：+11.8%（20日）
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | ADBE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 13.60x | 40.25 | |
| P/B市净率 | 8.34x | 5.91 | |
| P/S市销率 | 4.08x | 4.85 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.35% | 2.18 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.16% | 3.07 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 11.64% | 2.14 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 10.26x | 28.83 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.84x | 29.15 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 13.1%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 9.0%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
89.3%
Operating margin营业利润率
36.6%
Net margin净利率
30.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
42.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 61%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.08
Current ratio流动比率1.00
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$11.3B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$1.9B
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-6.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Software & Platforms theme — #11 of 46 themes「AI 软件与平台」主题 — 46 个主题中第 11 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.14%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.03%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$227
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
4.4%
Flow:资金流向： $70M premium traded; 40% 0DTE; 66 fresh positions; P/C 0.26; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $70M；0DTE占40%；66个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.26；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.5M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.5M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Coatue Management | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~16 day(s) ago @ 193.41) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 16 天前形成 @ 193.41）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 17, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 10, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
ADBE weekly MACD crossed upADBE 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 1, 2026
ADBE daily MACD crossed upADBE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $210.98.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$210.98。
Jun 30, 2026
ADBE broke down vs the marketADBE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $205.02.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$205.02。
Jun 29, 2026
ADBE StochRSI turned up from oversoldADBE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $206.43.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$206.43。
Jun 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 105 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Adobe Inc., formerly Adobe Systems Incorporated, is an American multinational computer software company based in San Jose, California.Adobe公司，前身为Adobe系统公司，是一家美国跨国计算机软件公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) decelerating (+13% YoY to ~$22B, 0.9× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）增速放缓（同比+13%，约 $22B，覆盖营收 0.9 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 13.6× | 40.2× | 91% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 8.3× | 5.9× | 33% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 4.1× | 4.8× | 56% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 10.3× | 28.8× | 88% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.3% | 2.2% | 93% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.3% | 4.2% | 88% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 11.6% | 2.1% | 94% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
3/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
31/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#180 / 184
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.8% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +20.3% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -5.0% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -20.2% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -29.6% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -35.8% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.39
Volatility rank波动率分位
60th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.8% of float
Market cap市值
$97B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$17.26
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-37.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $12.9B | $15.8B | $17.6B | $19.4B | $21.5B | $23.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $10.83 | $10.02 | $10.10 | $11.82 | $12.36 | $16.70 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $5.3B | $6.9B | $7.4B | $6.9B | $7.9B | $9.9B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 86.6% | 88.2% | 87.7% | 87.9% | 89.0% | 89.3% |
| Net margin净利率 | 40.9% | 30.5% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 25.9% | 30.0% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 41.2% | 43.6% | 42.0% | 35.8% | 36.6% | 41.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$23.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$21.2B
Net income净利润
$7.1B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$10.0B
Total assets总资产
$29.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$11.6B
Buybacks股票回购
$11.3B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.41B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
61.3%
Return on assets资产回报率
24.2%
Profit growth利润增速
+28.2%
Asset growth资产增速
-2.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin +2.7pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 2.7 个百分点
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 7.19 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 7.19——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
59
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
58
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+8.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-16.6%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
90/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
27
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+4.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+27
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$235
Put wall看跌期权墙
$210
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$227
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$250
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$220
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+3.4%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+4.4%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | Trimming减持 | 0.0% | $3M |
| Coatue Management | A | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $306M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 2
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 4, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -4, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 4, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -4, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.8%
Days to cover回补天数
2.3
Short interest change空头变化
-6.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Roundhill Ball MetaverseRoundhill Ball Metaverse
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。