Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Financials / AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd. · Financials
AGO US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Mid cap中盘 · $3B
Financials
S&P 600标普600小盘
Financial金融股
$76.17
+$1.41 · +1.89%
52w low52周低 $72.23high高 $92.03
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 74.76.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 74.76 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
34
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-5.1% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-8.3% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
90th percentile第90百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat in 3 of last 4 quarters近 4 季中 3 季超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 39.4%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | AGO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 6.84x | 15.11 | |
| P/B市净率 | 0.61x | 1.56 | |
| P/S市销率 | 3.10x | 3.12 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 14.61% | 6.54 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 16.50% | 3.75 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.1B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -0.1%
Earnings per share每股收益
$10.262025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 19.6%
Net margin净利率
45.3%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/7
Return on equity股本回报率 9%
Clean稳健
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$500.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-10.5%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$18.1M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$18.1M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum positive; but rolling toward a weekly cross-down; 3-day crossed down; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为正；但正趋向周线向下交叉；3 日线向下交叉；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 11, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Aug 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Aug 7, 2026
AGO broke down vs the marketAGO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $75.43.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$75.43。
Aug 7, 2026
AGO RSI reached oversoldAGO RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $75.43.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$75.43。
Aug 4, 2026
AGO lost its 200-day averageAGO 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $82.89.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$82.89。
Aug 3, 2026
AGO reclaimed its 200-day averageAGO 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $83.95.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$83.95。
Jul 31, 2026
AGO lost its 200-day averageAGO 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $82.72.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$82.72。
Jul 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
AGO daily MACD crossed downAGO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $85.48.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$85.48。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 258 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 6.8× | 15.1× | 98% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 0.6× | 1.6× | 97% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 3.1× | 3.1× | 50% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 98% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.5% | 8.1% | 45% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 16.5% | 3.8% | 96% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
28/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
32/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
17/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
20/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#188 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -7.8% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -7.9% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -10.9% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -13.4% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -6.8% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +34.4% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.08
Volatility rank波动率分位
90th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.2% of float
Market cap市值
$3B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$11.13
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-16.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.1B | $848M | $723M | $1.4B | $872M | $1.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $4.19 | $5.23 | $1.92 | $12.30 | $6.87 | $10.26 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 32.5% | 45.9% | 17.2% | 53.8% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.1B
Net income净利润
$503M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$259M
Total assets总资产
$12.2B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$5.7B
Dividends paid股息支出
$68M
Buybacks股票回购
$500M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.05B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
8.9%
Return on assets资产回报率
4.1%
Profit growth利润增速
+33.8%
Asset growth资产增速
+2.3%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
34
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
62
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-7.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-5.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-8.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
100/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $2.50 | $1.50 | +66.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $2.32 | $1.54 | +50.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $2.57 | $1.46 | +76.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.01 | $1.57 | -35.7% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-6.5%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-2
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$18.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 4
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.2%
Days to cover回补天数
5.9
Short interest change空头变化
-1.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Nov · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Aug · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +5.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +1.8% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -4.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +0.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -3.2% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +3.1% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +5.9% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 0% | -2.2% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 67% | +3.0% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +3.3% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +11.9% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -0.7% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。