Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Materials / AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. · Materials
AMR US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, formerly Contura Energy, is a leading coal supplier with underground and surface coal mining complexes across Northern and Central Appalachia.Alpha Metallurgical Resources（原名 Contura Energy）是一家领先的煤炭供应商，在阿巴拉契亚地区北部和中部拥有地下和露天煤矿综合体。
Small cap小盘 · $2B
Materials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$155.60
-$3.92 · -2.46%
52w low52周低 $131high高 $255
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 137.16.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 137.16 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.4% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-15.7% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
5th percentile第5百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Mixed — beat 1 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 1 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: +8.2% (20d)财报后漂移：+8.2%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 16.0%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | AMR | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 1.29x | 2.82 | |
| P/S市销率 | 0.94x | 1.61 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -3.10% | 2.83 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 0.89% | 3.14 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 14.41x | 13.91 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 112.11x | 26.46 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$2.1B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 8.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
$-4.752025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$17.8M2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
-2.9%
Net margin净利率
-2.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
6.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 -4%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-3.20
Current ratio流动比率4.47
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$13.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-1.6%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$13.8M net (2 buyers, 4 sellers)+$13.8M 净值（2 买家，4 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 28.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；3 日线向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败（跌破其自身起始低点），此处概率更偏向失败。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 31, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 29, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 28, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 22, 2026
AMR daily MACD crossed upAMR 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $146.27.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$146.27。
Jul 14, 2026
AMR StochRSI turned up from oversoldAMR StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $153.94.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$153.94。
Jul 10, 2026
AMR RSI reached oversoldAMR RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $146.69.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$146.69。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 230 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, formerly Contura Energy, is a leading coal supplier with underground and surface coal mining complexes across Northern and Central Appalachia.Alpha Metallurgical Resources（原名 Contura Energy）是一家领先的煤炭供应商，在阿巴拉契亚地区北部和中部拥有地下和露天煤矿综合体。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Inventory build
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 1.3× | 2.8× | 86% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.9× | 1.6× | 70% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 14.4× | 13.9× | 48% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -3.1% | 2.8% | 17% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.3% | 6.7% | 54% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
74/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
12/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
14/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
33/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#48 / 107
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.3% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +1.1% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -13.4% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -16.1% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -23.4% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -6.6% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -17.9% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.76
Volatility rank波动率分位
5th pctile
Short interest空头占比
13.1% of float
Market cap市值
$2B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$-4.82
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-37.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.4B | $2.3B | $4.1B | $3.5B | $3.0B | $2.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-24.42 | $15.30 | $79.49 | $49.30 | $14.28 | $-4.75 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $10M | $92M | $1.3B | $606M | $381M | $18M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | -31.6% | 12.8% | 35.3% | 20.8% | 6.3% | -2.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 0.7% | 4.1% | 32.2% | 17.5% | 12.9% | 0.8% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.1B
Net income净利润
$-62M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$145M
Total assets总资产
$2.3B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.5B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.01B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-4.0%
Return on assets资产回报率
-2.7%
Profit growth利润增速
-132.9%
Asset growth资产增速
-6.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +79% vs sales +50%; receivables +91% vs sales +50% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +79% 对销售 +50%；应收 +91% 对销售 +50%——需求与营收质量风险
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 4.13 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 4.13——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
54
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
46
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+6.4%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.4%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-15.7%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CoiledCOILED
Days compressed已压缩天数
13
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
23/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $-0.86 | $-0.86 | 0.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $-1.34 | $-1.34 | 0.0% |
| Sep 2025 | $-0.42 | $-0.35 | -20.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $-0.38 | $-2.38 | +84.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+0.7%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 28.1% | $119M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'stable', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 3.8, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-14', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1]}{'direction': 'stable', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 3.8, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-14', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$13.8M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
2 : 4
Short interest空头占流通盘
13.1%
Days to cover回补天数
5.9
Short interest change空头变化
+0.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Sep · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +6.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 0% | -24.7% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -8.5% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 0% | -1.8% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -10.9% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +7.3% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +16.3% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 100% | +10.6% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -11.8% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +17.3% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +19.7% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。