Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / AVAV
AeroVironment · Industrials
AVAV US listed · USD美股 · 美元
AeroVironment, Inc., also known as AV, is an American defense technology company headquartered in Arlington, Virginia that designs and manufactures autonomous systems, counter-UAS systems, and space systems. The company was founded in 1971 by Paul B. MacCready Jr., a designer...AeroVironment, Inc.（航空环境公司），简称AV，是一家美国防务技术公司，总部位于弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿，设计和制造自主系统、反无人机系统及太空系统。公司由人力飞行器设计师保罗·B·麦克雷迪于1971年创立。
Mid cap中盘 · $9B
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$189.43
-$4.38 · -2.26%
52w low52周低 $130high高 $419
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 141.22.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 141.22 则明确离场。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
64
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+16.1% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-16.6% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
54th percentile第54百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-09-0825
Estimates being cut预期下调
Mixed — beat 1 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 1 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: -4.5% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.5%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 -9.9%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | AVAV | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S市销率 | 4.78x | 2.24 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.26% | 3.73 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 115.64x | 16.47 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$820.6M2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 20.1%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.552025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 12.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$24.1M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
25.3%
Operating margin营业利润率
5.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
-4.0%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 2/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.01
Current ratio流动比率3.52
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$21.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+77.0%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Defense & Aerospace theme — #23 of 49 themes「国防与航空航天」主题 — 49 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +12.6%空头仓位变动 +12.6%
Technical技术面
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.86%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±10.87%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$146
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
5.3%
Flow:资金流向： $3M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 10 fresh positions; P/C 0.87; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +2,066); ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $3M；0DTE占0%；10个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.87；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +2,066）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$1.6M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$1.6M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY. A new cycle low likely formed 21 day(s) ago (2026-07-15 @ 141.22): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — and the weekly timeframe agrees. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入。新的周期低点可能已在 21 天前形成 （2026-07-15 @ 141.22）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——且周线周期也一致确认。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 12, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 7, 2026
AVAV weekly MACD crossed upAVAV 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Aug 3, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BUY ZONE未确认转向 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 22, 2026
AVAV daily MACD crossed upAVAV 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $150.35.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$150.35。
Jul 17, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 17, 2026
AVAV broke down vs the marketAVAV 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $142.20.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$142.20。
Jul 10, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 10, 2026
AVAV weekly MACD crossed downAVAV 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 10, 2026
AVAV daily MACD crossed downAVAV 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $144.58.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$144.58。
Jul 8, 2026
UPTREND → DOWNTREND上涨趋势 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 235 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
AeroVironment, Inc., also known as AV, is an American defense technology company headquartered in Arlington, Virginia that designs and manufactures autonomous systems, counter-UAS systems, and space systems. The company was founded in 1971 by Paul B. MacCready Jr., a designer...AeroVironment, Inc.（航空环境公司），简称AV，是一家美国防务技术公司，总部位于弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿，设计和制造自主系统、反无人机系统及太空系统。公司由人力飞行器设计师保罗·B·麦克雷迪于1971年创立。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) decelerating (+62% YoY to ~$1B, 0.6× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）增速放缓（同比+62%，约 $1B，覆盖营收 0.6 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales市销率 | 4.8× | 2.2× | 21% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 115.6× | 16.5× | 1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.8% | 5.5% | 3% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
8/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
81/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
18/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
23/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#212 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +10.7% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +32.0% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +19.9% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -22.3% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -26.1% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -25.7% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +97.8% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.98
Volatility rank波动率分位
54th pctile
Short interest空头占比
8.7% of float
Market cap市值
$9B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-53.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $395M | $446M | $541M | $717M | $821M |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.96 | $-0.17 | $-7.04 | $2.18 | $1.55 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $75M | $-32M | $-3M | $-8M | $-24M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 41.7% | 31.7% | 32.1% | 39.6% | 38.8% |
| Net margin净利率 | 5.9% | -0.9% | -32.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 19.1% | -7.2% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.0B
Gross profit毛利润
$501M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$-78M
Total assets总资产
$5.4B
Long-term debt长期负债
$728M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.05B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
13.6%
Asset growth资产增速
+411.8%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 5 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 5 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: soft gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力弱于同业
- Capital discipline: share count +14.1% over 5 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 5 年增加 14.1%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 25.91 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 25.91——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
64
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
37
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+16.1%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+16.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-16.6%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
81/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.84 | $1.53 | +20.3% |
| Jan 2026 | $0.64 | $0.68 | -5.9% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.44 | $0.85 | -48.2% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.32 | $0.34 | -5.9% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
11
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-18.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-7
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$200
Put wall看跌期权墙
$170
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$146
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$200
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$175
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+24.0%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+5.3%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $408,552 |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 3, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-11-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 3, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-11-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$1.6M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
8.7%
Days to cover回补天数
3.2
Short interest change空头变化
+12.6%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Aerospace & DefenseSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Apr · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jul · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +16.2% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -7.0% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -21.9% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +7.7% | 3 |
| May5月 | 100% | +16.8% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -9.4% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 0% | -2.6% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +14.3% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 100% | +15.9% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 100% | +7.5% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 33% | -9.2% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 0% | -12.4% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。