Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / CCL
Carnival Corporation · Consumer Disc.
CCL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Carnival Corporation Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled American cruise line operator that owns more than 90 vessels across eight brands.嘉年华集团是一家注册于百慕大的美国邮轮运营商，旗下八个品牌拥有超过90艘邮轮。
Large cap大盘 · $35B
Consumer Disc.
Distressed困境股
$28.42
+$0.75 · +2.71%
52w low52周低 $22.90high高 $34.42
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–3 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–3 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
55
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+2.4% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
32th percentile第32百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-10-0552
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -11.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-11.7%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 18.1%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | CCL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 12.73x | 20.35 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.86x | 3.13 | |
| P/S市销率 | 1.32x | 1.37 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.85% | 4.65 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.42% | 5.43 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 8.23x | 11.90 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 13.48x | 16.77 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$26.6B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 36.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
$2.022025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$2.6B2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
16.8%
Net margin净利率
10.4%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.4%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/7
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 22%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.40
Current ratio流动比率0.32
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$98.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+6.2%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #28 of 49 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 49 个主题中第 28 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +11.7%空头仓位变动 +11.7%
Technical技术面
CCL reclaimed its 200-day averageCCL 收复200日均线
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.32%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.19%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$29
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.5%
Flow:资金流向： $3M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 10 fresh positions; P/C 0.52; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $3M；0DTE占0%；10个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.52；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$13.5M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$13.5M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-07-23 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-07-23 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 13, 2026
CCL reclaimed its 200-day averageCCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $28.42.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$28.42。
Aug 10, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A LOW买入区 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Aug 10, 2026
CCL lost its 200-day averageCCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $27.75.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$27.75。
Aug 7, 2026
CCL weekly MACD crossed upCCL 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Aug 6, 2026
Golden cross on CCLCCL 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $28.64.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$28.64。
Aug 3, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BUY ZONE未确认转向 → 买入区
BUY买入
Aug 3, 2026
CCL reclaimed its 200-day averageCCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $28.59.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$28.59。
Jul 29, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 29, 2026
CCL lost its 200-day averageCCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $27.67.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$27.67。
Jul 28, 2026
CCL reclaimed its 200-day averageCCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $28.08.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$28.08。
Jul 28, 2026
CCL daily MACD crossed upCCL 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $28.08.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$28.08。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 98 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Carnival Corporation Ltd. is a Bermuda-domiciled American cruise line operator that owns more than 90 vessels across eight brands.嘉年华集团是一家注册于百慕大的美国邮轮运营商，旗下八个品牌拥有超过90艘邮轮。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 12.7× | 20.4× | 78% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.9× | 3.1× | 53% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 1.3× | 1.4× | 51% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 8.2× | 11.9× | 70% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.8% | 4.7% | 80% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 85% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
28/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
64/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
19/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
31/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#159 / 212
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.8% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.8% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +16.0% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -10.0% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -7.1% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -6.2% | +21.6% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.09
Volatility rank波动率分位
32th pctile
Short interest空头占比
3.0% of float
Market cap市值
$35B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$2.23
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-15.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $5.6B | $1.9B | $12.2B | $21.6B | $25.0B | $26.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-13.20 | $-8.46 | $-5.16 | $-0.06 | $1.44 | $2.02 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-9.9B | $-7.7B | $-6.6B | $997M | $1.3B | $2.6B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | 33.7% | 37.5% | — |
| Net margin净利率 | -182.9% | -498.0% | -50.1% | -0.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -177.3% | -404.4% | -54.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 9.8% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$26.6B
Net income净利润
$2.8B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$6.2B
Total assets总资产
$51.7B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$12.3B
Long-term debt长期负债
$24.0B
Shares outstanding总股本
1.24B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
22.5%
Return on assets资产回报率
5.3%
Debt / assets负债/资产
46.5%
Profit growth利润增速
+44.1%
Asset growth资产增速
+5.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.26 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.26——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
55
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
78
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+3.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+2.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
57/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $0.41 | $0.35 | +17.1% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.20 | $0.18 | +11.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.34 | $0.25 | +36.0% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.43 | $1.32 | +8.3% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
17
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.5%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+5
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$30
Put wall看跌期权墙
$26
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$29
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$30
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$27
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-1.4%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+0.5%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$13.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
3.0%
Days to cover回补天数
1.9
Short interest change空头变化
+11.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。