Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / CVLT
CommVault Systems · Tech
CVLT US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Commvault Systems, Inc. is an American publicly traded cybersecurity and data protection software company.Commvault系统公司是一家美国上市的网络安全和数据保护软件公司。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Tech
S&P 400标普400中盘
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
$151.10
+$9.36 · +6.60%
52w low52周低 $73.41high高 $199
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The daily turn is already in — a low formed at $116.42 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe confirming, so this is…日线转向已经完成——低点于近期形成，价位116.42，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
64
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+11.1% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+33.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
92th percentile第92百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | CVLT | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 94.17x | 42.55 | |
| P/B市净率 | 30.70x | 6.08 | |
| P/S市销率 | 5.62x | 5.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.06% | 1.88 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.56% | 2.96 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 6.70% | 2.07 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 68.22x | 30.21 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 28.06x | 31.99 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.2B2026
20212026
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.3%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.582026
20212026
Free cash flow自由现金流
$237.2M2026
20212026
Gross margin毛利率
81.2%
Operating margin营业利润率
6.3%
Net margin净利率
6.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
20.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 33%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-10.67
Current ratio流动比率1.95
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$123.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.0%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CVLT daily MACD crossed upCVLT 日线MACD上穿
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$9.4M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$9.4M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. New daily cycle, day 10: swing low in, price back above the 10-day average, daily momentum positive — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial买入预备。新的日线周期，第 10 天：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线，日线动量为正——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分
Aug 11, 2026
CVLT daily MACD crossed upCVLT 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $139.43.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$139.43。
Aug 4, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 4, 2026
CVLT StochRSI turned up from oversoldCVLT StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $132.10.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$132.10。
Jul 31, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 30, 2026
CVLT printed a daily-cycle lowCVLT 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $116.42.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$116.42。
Jul 29, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → NEARING A LOW接近高点 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 27, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 27, 2026
CVLT took relative-strength leadershipCVLT 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $149.46.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$149.46。
Jul 27, 2026
CVLT StochRSI turned up from oversoldCVLT StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $149.46.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$149.46。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 274 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Commvault Systems, Inc. is an American publicly traded cybersecurity and data protection software company.Commvault系统公司是一家美国上市的网络安全和数据保护软件公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 94.2× | 42.5× | 21% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 30.7× | 6.1× | 9% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 5.6× | 5.2× | 45% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 68.2× | 30.2× | 20% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 33% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 49% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 6.7% | 2.1% | 88% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
29/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
95/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
94/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
18/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#149 / 222
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +13.3% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +1.7% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +45.4% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +72.4% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +21.7% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -21.1% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +115.1% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.01
Volatility rank波动率分位
92th pctile
Short interest空头占比
7.3% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.60
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-22.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | 20262026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $723M | $770M | $785M | $839M | $996M | $1.2B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-0.66 | $0.71 | $-0.80 | $3.75 | $1.68 | $1.58 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $116M | $173M | $167M | $200M | $204M | $237M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 84.9% | 85.2% | 82.7% | 81.9% | 82.0% | 81.2% |
| Net margin净利率 | -4.3% | 4.4% | -4.6% | 20.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 16.0% | 22.5% | 21.3% | 23.8% | 20.5% | 20.0% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.2B
Gross profit毛利润
$961M
Net income净利润
$71M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$245M
Total assets总资产
$2.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$217M
Buybacks股票回购
$446M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.04B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
32.6%
Return on assets资产回报率
3.5%
Profit growth利润增速
-7.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+99.1%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin −3.7pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 3.7 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +99.1% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +99.1%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.19 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.19——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
64
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
100
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+11.1%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+11.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+33.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
80/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $9M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 4, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-08-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 4, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-08-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$9.4M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
7.3%
Days to cover回补天数
4.3
Short interest change空头变化
-8.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Feb · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +6.4% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 100% | +4.5% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -6.7% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +7.9% | 3 |
| May5月 | 100% | +9.5% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +12.5% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +10.4% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +2.4% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -0.6% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -3.2% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +10.0% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +1.7% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。