Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Staples / EL
Estée Lauder Companies (The) · Staples
EL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is an American multinational cosmetics company, a manufacturer and marketer of makeup, skincare, perfume, and hair care products, based in Midtown Manhattan, New York City.雅诗兰黛公司是一家美国跨国化妆品公司，生产和销售彩妆、护肤品、香水和护发产品，总部位于纽约市曼哈顿中城。
Large cap大盘 · $32B
Staples
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
$87.32
-$0.36 · -0.41%
52w low52周低 $64.13high高 $121
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~15 days ago at $79.92 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe…日线转向已经完成——低点于约 15 天前形成，价位79.92，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
58
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+3.9% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-4.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
5th percentile第5百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-195
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 39.1%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | EL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 7.84x | 3.16 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.21x | 1.31 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.12% | 4.65 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.07% | 2.78 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 651.68x | 12.81 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 47.15x | 21.36 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$14.3B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 0.0%
Earnings per share每股收益
$-3.152025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$670.0M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
74.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
-5.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
8.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/7
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-66.32
Current ratio流动比率1.30
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$35.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$304.0M
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Staples (Equal-Weight) theme — #41 of 49 themes「必需消费（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 41 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.39%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.57%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$80
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
12.7%
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 15 day(s) ago (2026-07-23 @ 79.92): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 15 天前形成 （2026-07-23 @ 79.92）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 31, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
EL daily MACD crossed upEL 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $84.75.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$84.75。
Jul 27, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 23, 2026
EL daily MACD crossed downEL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $79.92.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$79.92。
Jul 22, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 20, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 20, 2026
EL daily MACD crossed upEL 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $83.64.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$83.64。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 99 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is an American multinational cosmetics company, a manufacturer and marketer of makeup, skincare, perfume, and hair care products, based in Midtown Manhattan, New York City.雅诗兰黛公司是一家美国跨国化妆品公司，生产和销售彩妆、护肤品、香水和护发产品，总部位于纽约市曼哈顿中城。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 7.8× | 3.2× | 20% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.2× | 1.3× | 31% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 651.7× | 12.8× | 0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.0% | 8.3% | 13% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 2.1% | 2.8% | 46% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
30/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
48/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
14/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
30/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#50 / 74
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.1% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +8.0% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +9.2% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -18.8% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -17.6% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -7.0% | +21.6% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.42
Volatility rank波动率分位
5th pctile
Market cap市值
$32B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-26.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $14.3B | $16.2B | $17.7B | $15.9B | $15.6B | $14.3B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.86 | $7.79 | $6.55 | $2.79 | $1.08 | $-3.15 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.7B | $3.0B | $2.0B | $728M | $1.4B | $670M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 75.2% | 76.4% | 75.7% | 71.3% | 71.7% | 74.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 4.8% | 17.7% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | -7.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 11.6% | 18.5% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 9.2% | 4.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$14.3B
Gross profit毛利润
$10.6B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.3B
Total assets总资产
$19.6B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$4.0B
Dividends paid股息支出
$618M
Buybacks股票回购
$35M
Returns & growth回报与增长
Asset growth资产增速
-0.6%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: receivables +28% vs sales +0% — receivables outpacing sales, revenue-quality risk营运资本：应收 +28% 对销售 +0%——应收快于销售，营收质量风险
- Pricing power: strong gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力强于同业
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.69 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.69——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
58
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
37
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+3.1%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+3.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-4.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
28/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.91 | $0.66 | +37.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.89 | $0.84 | +6.0% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.32 | $0.16 | +100.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.09 | $0.08 | +12.5% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
6
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+2
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$90
Put wall看跌期权墙
$80
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$80
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$105
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$80
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+7.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+12.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Days to cover回补天数
3.7
Short interest change空头变化
-0.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。