Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / ETSY
Etsy · Consumer Disc.
ETSY US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Consumer Disc.
S&P 600标普600小盘
Distressed困境股
$68.44
-$0.54 · -0.78%
52w low52周低 $42.49high高 $88.84
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
As of 2026-09-28截至 2026-09-28
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-28
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
33
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-13.9% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+4.9% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
28th percentile第28百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-0437
Estimates being raised — 21 analysts预期上调 — 21 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 24.1%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | ETSY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 40.74x | 18.46 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.30x | 1.20 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.45% | 5.13 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.21% | 5.92 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 11.70% | 4.51 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 20.59x | 10.56 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.79x | 16.23 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$2.9B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.392025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -12.4%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$678.0M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
71.6%
Operating margin营业利润率
9.2%
Net margin净利率
5.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
24.0%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/9
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 -15%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA2.55
Current ratio流动比率1.44
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$776.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$244.7M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-10.6%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Its filings are available, but they do not break debt down by the year it comes due — every bucket below is unreported.已获取该公司的 SEC 文件，但文件中未按到期年度拆分债务 —— 以下各区间均未披露。
Next 12 months未来12个月
not reported未披露
Year 2第2年
not reported未披露
Year 3第3年
not reported未披露
Year 4第4年
not reported未披露
Year 5第5年
not reported未披露
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Not every company reports a year-by-year schedule. Nothing is being estimated in its place.并非所有公司都会披露逐年到期安排；此处不作任何估算替代。
Cash reported at 2025-12-31: $1395836000.截至 2025-12-31 披露的现金：$1395836000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31; no cash burn to measure.在 2025-01-01 至 2025-12-31 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Capital-need coverage is partial; incomplete or incompatible filing inputs are not combined.资本需求覆盖信息不完整；不会合并不完整或不兼容的报告数据。
Any available cash-flow scenario is context only. Missing or incompatible inputs are not replaced with zero or a financing forecast.可用现金流情景仅供参考；缺失或不兼容的输入不以零值或融资预测替代。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Annual period年度区间 2025-01-01 — 2025-12-31 · USD · 10-K · 0001370637-26-000019 · Filed提交日期 2026-02-19.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-24T08:02:04.818763+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-09-29.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $693414000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $15386000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $678028000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
ETSY broke down vs the marketETSY 相对市场走弱
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$52.1M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$52.1M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Soros Fund Management | B | Adding加仓 | 0.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Elliott Investment Management | D | Holding持有 | 1.7% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UPTREND → DOWNTREND上涨趋势 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
Sep 25, 2026
ETSY broke down vs the marketETSY 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $68.44.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$68.44。
Sep 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 15, 2026
ETSY StochRSI turned up from oversoldETSY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $74.00.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$74.00。
Sep 11, 2026
ETSY weekly MACD crossed downETSY 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Sep 9, 2026
ETSY printed a daily-cycle lowETSY 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $71.19.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$71.19。
Sep 4, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 31, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Aug 31, 2026
ETSY daily MACD crossed downETSY 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $81.33.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$81.33。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 276 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 40.7× | 18.5× | 10% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.3× | 1.2× | 25% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 20.6× | 10.6× | 13% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.5% | 5.1% | 20% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.4% | 8.7% | 58% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 11.7% | 4.5% | 89% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
79/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
31/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
86/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
59/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#37 / 210
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -5.7% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -16.3% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -12.3% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +44.7% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +19.5% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +7.6% | +18.5% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +10.6% | +87.8% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.12
Volatility rank波动率分位
28th pctile
Short interest空头占比
10.6% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.68
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-21.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.7B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $2.9B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.69 | $3.40 | $-5.48 | $2.24 | $2.35 | $1.39 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $678M | $640M | $673M | $693M | $738M | $678M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 73.1% | 71.9% | 71.0% | 69.8% | 72.4% | 71.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | 20.2% | 21.2% | -27.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 39.3% | 27.5% | 26.2% | 25.2% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.9B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.1B
Net income净利润
$163M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$693M
Total assets总资产
$2.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-1.1B
Buybacks股票回购
$777M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.10B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-14.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
5.8%
Profit growth利润增速
-46.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+16.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: strong gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力强于同业
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.41 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.41——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
33
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
8
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-8.9%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-13.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+4.9%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
61/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.98 | $0.77 | +27.3% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.89 | $0.62 | +43.5% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.92 | $0.88 | +4.5% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.63 | $0.52 | +21.1% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
21
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+13.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+17
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | $223,579 |
| Soros Fund Management | B | Adding增持 | 0.3% | $22M |
| Elliott Investment Management | D | Holding持有 | 1.7% | $377M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
3
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
2 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 2, 'value_change_pct': 32917.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 3]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 2, 'value_change_pct': 32917.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 3]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$52.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 8
Short interest空头占流通盘
10.6%
Days to cover回补天数
3.3
Short interest change空头变化
-4.2%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Global X E-commerceGlobal X E-commerce
trimming减持
SPDR S&P RetailSPDR S&P Retail
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -3.7% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +5.7% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -7.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +0.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +6.3% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -7.0% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +10.7% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +0.2% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 50% | +1.4% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 0% | -5.1% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +6.9% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +2.5% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。