Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / ETSY
Etsy · Consumer Disc.
ETSY US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Mid cap中盘 · $8B
Consumer Disc.
S&P 600标普600小盘
Distressed困境股
$80.67
+$1.04 · +1.31%
52w low52周低 $42.49high高 $88.19
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 79.48.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 79.48 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+3.4% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+29.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
31th percentile第31百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定
Beat in 3 of last 4 quarters近 4 季中 3 季超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 3.9%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | ETSY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 48.02x | 20.35 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.71x | 1.37 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.08% | 4.65 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.66% | 5.43 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 9.93% | 4.06 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 23.81x | 11.90 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 11.54x | 16.77 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$2.9B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.392025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -12.4%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$678.0M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
71.6%
Operating margin营业利润率
9.2%
Net margin净利率
5.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
24.0%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/9
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 -15%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA2.55
Current ratio流动比率1.44
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$776.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$244.7M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-10.6%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -30.1%空头仓位变动 -30.1%
Technical技术面
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$52.1M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$52.1M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | Holding持有 | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum positive; but rolling toward a weekly cross-down; 3-day crossed down; investor cycle overdue). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为正；但正趋向周线向下交叉；3 日线向下交叉；投资者周期已逾期）。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%
Aug 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Aug 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 4, 2026
ETSY made a new 52-week highETSY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $86.43.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$86.43。
Aug 4, 2026
ETSY StochRSI turned up from oversoldETSY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $86.43.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$86.43。
Aug 3, 2026
ETSY took relative-strength leadershipETSY 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $83.17.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$83.17。
Jul 31, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
ETSY made a new 52-week highETSY 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $86.47.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$86.47。
Jul 28, 2026
ETSY StochRSI turned up from oversoldETSY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $86.47.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$86.47。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 265 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies.Etsy公司是一家美国电商公司，专注于手工或复古商品及工艺用品。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 48.0× | 20.4× | 10% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.7× | 1.4× | 21% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 23.8× | 11.9× | 12% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.1% | 4.7% | 20% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 56% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 9.9% | 4.1% | 87% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
81/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
91/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
93/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
64/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#34 / 212
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -1.9% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -2.9% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +38.9% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +76.4% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +40.8% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +15.1% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +1.7% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.19
Volatility rank波动率分位
31th pctile
Short interest空头占比
10.1% of float
Market cap市值
$8B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.68
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-6.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.7B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $2.9B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.69 | $3.40 | $-5.48 | $2.24 | $2.35 | $1.39 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $678M | $640M | $673M | $693M | $738M | $678M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 73.1% | 71.9% | 71.0% | 69.8% | 72.4% | 71.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | 20.2% | 21.2% | -27.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 39.3% | 27.5% | 26.2% | 25.2% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.9B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.1B
Net income净利润
$163M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$693M
Total assets总资产
$2.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-1.1B
Buybacks股票回购
$777M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.10B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-14.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
5.8%
Profit growth利润增速
-46.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+16.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: strong gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力强于同业
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.59 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.59——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
49
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
57
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+3.4%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+29.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
11/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.89 | $0.62 | +43.5% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.92 | $0.88 | +4.5% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.63 | $0.52 | +21.1% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.25 | $0.54 | -53.7% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
7
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mixed分歧
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+13.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+3
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $11M |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | Holding持有 | 1.2% | $250M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 21455.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 21455.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-13', 'holders_series': [1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$52.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 8
Short interest空头占流通盘
10.1%
Days to cover回补天数
4.2
Short interest change空头变化
-30.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Global X E-commerceGlobal X E-commerce
trimming减持
SPDR S&P RetailSPDR S&P Retail
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -3.7% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +5.7% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -7.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +0.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +6.3% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -7.0% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +16.1% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 0% | -8.0% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 67% | +1.4% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 0% | -5.1% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +6.9% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +2.5% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。