Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Materials / HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · Materials
HCC US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Mid cap中盘 · $5B
Materials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Mixed profile混合特征
$94.38
-$2.34 · -2.42%
52w low52周低 $53.61high高 $114
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The low is already in and price has run. Wait for a pullback; hold if you're long.低点已经形成、价格已经拉升。等待回调再入场；若已持有可继续持有。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
65
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+9.0% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+9.1% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
29th percentile第29百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | HCC | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 87.05x | 29.75 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.32x | 2.82 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.15% | 2.83 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 20.56x | 13.91 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.3B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.082025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$636.7M2022
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
3.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 3%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.62
Current ratio流动比率3.19
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$20.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.5%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +16.3%空头仓位变动 +16.3%
Technical技术面
HCC RSI reached overboughtHCC RSI进入超买
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$13.2M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$13.2M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 39.9% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~19 day(s) ago @ 78.84) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 19 天前形成 @ 78.84）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 10, 2026
HCC RSI reached overboughtHCC RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $95.37.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$95.37。
Aug 6, 2026
HCC reclaimed its 200-day averageHCC 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $89.54.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$89.54。
Jul 31, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $79.34.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$79.34。
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 28, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $78.93.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$78.93。
Jul 24, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 16, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 262 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 87.0× | 29.8× | 6% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.3× | 2.8× | 54% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 20.6× | 13.9× | 21% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.1% | 2.8% | 30% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.6% | 6.7% | 25% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
85/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
60/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
52/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
79/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#29 / 107
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +5.4% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +13.4% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +10.9% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +9.6% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +5.6% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +48.2% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +136.9% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.51
Volatility rank波动率分位
29th pctile
Short interest空头占比
8.6% of float
Market cap市值
$5B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.08
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-14.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $783M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.3B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-0.70 | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $25M | $294M | $637M | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 20.1% | 47.7% | 59.1% | 45.7% | 34.0% | 25.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | -4.6% | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 3.2% | 27.7% | 36.6% | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Net income净利润
$57M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$229M
Total assets总资产
$2.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.1B
Long-term debt长期负债
$154M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.05B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
2.7%
Return on assets资产回报率
2.0%
Debt / assets负债/资产
5.5%
Profit growth利润增速
-77.3%
Asset growth资产增速
+7.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +99% vs sales +67%; receivables +118% vs sales +67% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +99% 对销售 +67%；应收 +118% 对销售 +67%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +4.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 4.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 6.35 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 6.35——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
65
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
33
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+11.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+9.0%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+9.1%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
88/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+0.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 39.9% | $169M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 10, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 339.3, 'from_period': '2023-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-14', 'available_on_first': '2024-02-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 10, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 339.3, 'from_period': '2023-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-14', 'available_on_first': '2024-02-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$13.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
8.6%
Days to cover回补天数
6.3
Short interest change空头变化
+16.3%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Metals & MiningSPDR S&P Metals & Mining
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Sep · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +2.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 0% | -7.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +7.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +1.5% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +0.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -7.2% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +11.3% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +17.8% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 100% | +5.3% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -0.7% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +14.8% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +8.9% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。