Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / LITE
Lumentum · Tech
LITE US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Large cap大盘 · $63B
Tech
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
$880.41
-$52.06 · -5.58%
52w low52周低 $112high高 $1,099
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The daily turn is already in — a low formed at $602.35 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe confirming, so this is…日线转向已经完成——低点于近期形成，价位602.35，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
56
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+8.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+39.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
92th percentile第92百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 6 analysts预期上调 — 6 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -3.2% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.2%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 63.4%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | LITE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 74.25x | 6.08 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.17% | 2.96 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.6B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -0.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.372025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -26.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$104.7M2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
-10.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Current ratio流动比率4.37
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$177.2M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+3.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #1 of 49 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 1 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±5.16%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±11.54%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$856
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.9%
Flow:资金流向： $147M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 144 fresh positions; P/C 1.12; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +8,894); ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $147M；0DTE占0%；144个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.12；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +8,894）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$77.7M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$77.7M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Light Street Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. New daily cycle, day 11: swing low in, price back above the 10-day average, daily momentum positive — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的日线周期，第 11 天：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线，日线动量为正——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 3, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $779.89.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$779.89。
Jul 31, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 31, 2026
LITE StochRSI turned up from oversoldLITE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $713.94.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$713.94。
Jul 29, 2026
LITE printed a daily-cycle lowLITE 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $602.35.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$602.35。
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 28, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed downLITE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $651.93.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$651.93。
Jul 27, 2026
LITE broke down vs the marketLITE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $711.96.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$711.96。
Jul 24, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 20, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 20, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $765.55.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$765.55。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 125 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 74.2× | 6.1× | 1% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
20/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
95/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#8 / 222
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +5.1% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +8.1% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -9.3% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +56.5% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +128.0% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +632.3% | +21.6% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
3.02
Volatility rank波动率分位
92th pctile
Short interest空头占比
12.0% of float
Market cap市值
$63B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-16.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.75 | $5.07 | $2.68 | $-1.93 | $-8.12 | $0.37 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $438M | $654M | $368M | $51M | $-108M | $-105M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 38.7% | 44.9% | 46.0% | 32.2% | 18.5% | 28.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 8.1% | 22.8% | 11.6% | -7.4% | -40.2% | 1.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 26.1% | 37.5% | 21.5% | 2.9% | -8.0% | -6.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Total assets总资产
$4.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$847M
Long-term debt长期负债
$47M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.07B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
1.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+21.2%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +149% vs sales +-2% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +149% 对销售 +-2%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −10.7pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 10.7 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +21.2% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +21.2%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 12.57 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 12.57——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
56
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
50
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+11.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+8.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+39.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
74/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $1.88 | $1.81 | +3.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.24 | $0.97 | +27.8% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.60 | $0.59 | +1.7% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.32 | $0.10 | +220.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
6
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+3.8%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+6
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$1,000
Put wall看跌期权墙
$880
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$856
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,000
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$800
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+7.6%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.9%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | $96M |
| Light Street Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | $2M |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $5M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
3
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
3 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 2, 'value_change_pct': 660.4, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 2, 'value_change_pct': 660.4, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$77.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 9
Short interest空头占流通盘
12.0%
Days to cover回补天数
1.9
Short interest change空头变化
-2.7%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Roundhill MEMERoundhill MEME
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。