Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / LITE
Lumentum · Tech
LITE US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Large cap大盘 · $67B
Tech
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$941.65
+$12.61 · +1.36%
52w low52周低 $145high高 $1,099
Leader · accounting warning — verify before buying领先 · 财务质量警示 — 买入前先核实
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~23 days ago at $830.17 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe…日线转向已经完成——低点于约 23 天前形成，价位830.17，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
As of 2026-09-29截至 2026-09-29
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-29
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+9.6% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+29.1% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
18th percentile第18百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-0335
Estimates being raised — 12 analysts预期上调 — 12 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 8.5%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | LITE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 79.42x | 5.73 | |
| P/S市销率 | 22.31x | 4.81 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -10.31% | 1.96 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.16% | 3.03 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.6B2025
20212025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -1.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.372025
20212025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -48.0%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$104.7M2025
20212025
Gross margin毛利率
41.7%
Operating margin营业利润率
-10.9%
Net margin净利率
-230.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
24.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 -819%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Current ratio流动比率4.37
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$177.2M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+3.3%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2022 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2022-07-02, it reported $10.7M due — about 1% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2022-07-02 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $10.7M，约占其披露本金的 1%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2022-07-02, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2022-07-02 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$10.7M
Year 2第2年
$459.0M
Year 3第3年
$9.6M
Year 4第4年
$9.6M
Year 5第5年
$1.9B
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Cash reported at 2026-06-27: $2043500000.截至 2026-06-27 披露的现金：$2043500000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27; no cash burn to measure.在 2025-06-29 至 2026-06-27 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Capital-need coverage is partial; incomplete or incompatible filing inputs are not combined.资本需求覆盖信息不完整；不会合并不完整或不兼容的报告数据。
Any available cash-flow scenario is context only. Missing or incompatible inputs are not replaced with zero or a financing forecast.可用现金流情景仅供参考；缺失或不兼容的输入不以零值或融资预测替代。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001628280-22-023617, period ending报告期截至 2022-07-02, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-27T08:39:37.935145+00:00.
5/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive— period_mismatch
Annual period年度区间 2025-06-29 — 2026-06-27 · USD · 10-K · 0001628280-26-057358 · Filed提交日期 2026-08-17.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-27T08:39:37.935145+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-09-29.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $751400000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $451300000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $300100000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
News新闻
1 recent stories — mixed1 篇最新报道，多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Infrastructure theme — #5 of 49 themes「AI 基础设施」主题 — 49 个主题中第 5 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.35%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±9.72%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$935
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.9%
Flow:资金流向： $147M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 144 fresh positions; P/C 1.12; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +8,894); ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $147M；0DTE占0%；144个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.12；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +8,894）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$77.7M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$77.7M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Light Street Capital | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 23 day(s) ago (2026-08-24 @ 830.17): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 23 天前形成 （2026-08-24 @ 830.17）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 22, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $945.67.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$945.67。
Sep 18, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 17, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 17, 2026
LITE StochRSI turned up from oversoldLITE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $893.61.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$893.61。
Sep 16, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A HIGH未确认转向 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 14, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 14, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed downLITE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $835.03.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$835.03。
Sep 11, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 149 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Recent news最新动态
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 79.4× | 5.7× | 1% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 22.3× | 4.8× | 7% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -10.3% | 2.0% | 3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.1% | 3.8% | 11% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
92/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
92/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#4 / 221
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.2% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +0.3% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +15.3% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +34.0% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +143.9% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +491.8% | +18.5% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.87
Volatility rank波动率分位
18th pctile
Short interest空头占比
9.1% of float
Market cap市值
$67B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$-97.13
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-10.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $5.07 | $2.68 | $-1.93 | $-8.12 | $0.37 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $654M | $368M | $51M | $-108M | $-105M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 44.9% | 46.0% | 32.2% | 18.5% | 28.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 22.8% | 11.6% | -7.4% | -40.2% | 1.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 37.5% | 21.5% | 2.9% | -8.0% | -6.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$3.0B
Gross profit毛利润
$1.3B
Net income净利润
$-6.9B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$751M
Total assets总资产
$4.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$847M
Long-term debt长期负债
$47M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.07B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-819.2%
Return on assets资产回报率
-144.3%
Debt / assets负债/资产
1.0%
Profit growth利润增速
-26876.4%
Asset growth资产增速
+21.2%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 5 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 5 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +139% vs sales +-6% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +139% 对销售 +-6%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −16.9pts over 5 years定价能力：毛利率 5 年下降 16.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +21.2% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +21.2%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 13.42 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 13.42——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
54
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
67
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+3.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+9.6%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+29.1%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CompressedCOMPRESSED
Days compressed已压缩天数
4
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
8/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.64 | $2.62 | +0.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.88 | $1.81 | +3.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.24 | $0.97 | +27.8% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.60 | $0.59 | +1.7% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
12
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+22.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+12
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$1,000
Put wall看跌期权墙
$900
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$935
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,000
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$900
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-1.5%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+0.9%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | $208,509 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $5M |
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $96M |
| Light Street Capital | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $2M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
4
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 3
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': -98.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-04', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 1]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': -98.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-04', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$77.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 9
Short interest空头占流通盘
9.1%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
-8.6%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P TelecomSPDR S&P Telecom
trimming减持
Roundhill Generative AI & TechRoundhill Generative AI & Tech
accumulating持续增持
Roundhill Robotaxi & AutonomousRoundhill Robotaxi & Autonomous
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。