Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / ONTO
Onto Innovation · Tech
ONTO US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Onto Innovation Inc. is an American semiconductor company formed in 2019 from the merger of Rudolph Technologies, Inc.Onto Innovation Inc. 是一家美国半导体公司，于2019年由Rudolph Technologies, Inc.合并而成。
Large cap大盘 · $17B
Tech
S&P 400标普400中盘
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
$337.82
+$0.47 · +0.14%
52w low52周低 $100.00high高 $394
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The daily turn is already in — a low formed at $218.31 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe confirming, so this is…日线转向已经完成——低点于近期形成，价位218.31，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
61
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+12.9% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+47.8% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
96th percentile第96百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Mixed — beat 2 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 2 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: -7.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-7.3%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 1.4%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | ONTO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 122.77x | 42.55 | |
| P/B市净率 | 7.99x | 6.08 | |
| P/S市销率 | 16.70x | 5.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.81% | 1.88 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.79% | 2.96 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.45% | 2.07 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 106.81x | 30.21 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 56.00x | 31.99 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.0B2024
20182024
5-yr growth5年复合增速 25.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
$2.782024
20182024
5-yr growth5年复合增速 3.5%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$299.8M2024
20182024
Gross margin毛利率
49.7%
Operating margin营业利润率
13.2%
Net margin净利率
13.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
32.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 3/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 6%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-2.25
Current ratio流动比率5.79
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$75.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$27.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.9%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Semiconductor Equipment (WFE) theme — #13 of 49 themes「半导体设备（晶圆厂设备）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 13 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
ONTO daily MACD crossed upONTO 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.98%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±11.13%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
4.3%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; P/C 0.36; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；看跌看涨比 0.36；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. New daily cycle, day 11: swing low in, price back above the 10-day average, daily momentum positive — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial买入预备。新的日线周期，第 11 天：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线，日线动量为正——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分
Aug 5, 2026
ONTO daily MACD crossed upONTO 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $276.00.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$276.00。
Jul 31, 2026
ONTO StochRSI turned up from oversoldONTO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $258.58.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$258.58。
Jul 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 30, 2026
ONTO reclaimed its 200-day averageONTO 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $250.52.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$250.52。
Jul 29, 2026
ONTO lost its 200-day averageONTO 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $218.31.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$218.31。
Jul 29, 2026
ONTO printed a daily-cycle lowONTO 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $218.31.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$218.31。
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 28, 2026
ONTO broke down vs the marketONTO 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $241.89.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$241.89。
Jul 24, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 22, 2026
ONTO StochRSI turned up from oversoldONTO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $295.25.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$295.25。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 261 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Onto Innovation Inc. is an American semiconductor company formed in 2019 from the merger of Rudolph Technologies, Inc.Onto Innovation Inc. 是一家美国半导体公司，于2019年由Rudolph Technologies, Inc.合并而成。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for wafer-fab equipment (one step back, longer lead)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——晶圆制造设备（上游一环，前置更长）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 122.8× | 42.5× | 14% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 8.0× | 6.1× | 38% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 16.7× | 5.2× | 11% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 106.8× | 30.2× | 12% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 27% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.0% | 3.7% | 24% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 19% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
96/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
87/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
93/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
97/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#22 / 222
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +25.7% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +5.8% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +24.3% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +55.5% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +103.7% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +203.1% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +203.6% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
3.22
Volatility rank波动率分位
96th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.3% of float
Market cap市值
$17B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$2.75
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-10.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20182018 | 20192019 | 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20242024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $325M | $306M | $556M | $789M | $816M | $1.0B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.34 | $0.06 | $0.63 | $2.86 | $2.46 | $2.78 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $96M | $11M | $102M | $163M | $149M | $300M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 56.7% | 44.1% | 50.0% | 54.4% | 51.5% | 49.7% |
| Net margin净利率 | 17.8% | 0.6% | 5.6% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 13.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 29.5% | 3.7% | 18.4% | 20.7% | 18.3% | 29.8% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.0B
Gross profit毛利润
$500M
Net income净利润
$137M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$328M
Total assets总资产
$2.4B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.1B
Buybacks股票回购
$75M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.05B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
6.5%
Return on assets资产回报率
5.8%
Profit growth利润增速
-32.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+11.8%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +382% vs sales +210%; receivables +429% vs sales +210% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +382% 对销售 +210%；应收 +429% 对销售 +210%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −7.0pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 7.0 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +103.9% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 103.9%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 39.3 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 39.3——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
61
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
88
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+19.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+12.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+47.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
91/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $1.42 | $1.38 | +2.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.26 | $1.28 | -1.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.92 | $0.87 | +5.8% |
| Jun 2025 | $1.25 | $1.27 | -1.6% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+8.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$300
Put wall看跌期权墙
$280
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$300
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$290
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+4.3%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.3%
Days to cover回补天数
2.3
Short interest change空头变化
-1.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jan · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 100% | +22.8% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +7.8% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +6.0% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -12.2% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 100% | +9.9% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 25% | -5.5% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 100% | +13.0% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -0.4% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -3.4% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +7.0% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 100% | +8.7% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。