Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / RCL
Royal Caribbean Group · Consumer Disc.
RCL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is a cruise holding company headquartered in Miami, Florida, United States and incorporated in Liberia. It is the world's second-largest cruise line operator, after Carnival Corporation & plc.Royal Caribbean Group 前身为皇家加勒比邮轮有限公司，是一家邮轮控股公司，总部位于美国佛罗里达州迈阿密，并在利比里亚注册。它是全球第二大邮轮运营商，仅次于嘉年华公司。
Large cap大盘 · $77B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Consumer Disc.
S&P 500标普500
$286.16
-$0.80 · -0.28%
52w low52周低 $231high高 $360
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum has crossed down — momentum is fading before the…筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已向下交叉——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21MA Sell (7)
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+0.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+0.6% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
12
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility波动率
20th percentile第20百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-0415days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | RCL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 18.14x | 19.97 | |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 14.3x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 7.71x | 2.89 | |
| P/S市销率 | 4.32x | 1.21 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.51% | 4.57 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.60% | 5.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.50% | 4.27 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 12.04x | 11.39 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 62.63x | 16.57 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 52.0%
Earnings per share每股收益
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
27.4%
Net margin净利率
23.8%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
36.0%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/7
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 42%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.36
Current ratio流动比率0.18
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.2B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$175.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.5%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 46 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 46 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.58%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.01%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.0%
Flow:资金流向： $3M premium traded; 33% 0DTE; 25 fresh positions; P/C 1.09; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $3M；0DTE占33%；25个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.09；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$627.0M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$627.0M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-07-08 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-07-08 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部
Jul 17, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 16, 2026
Golden cross on RCLRCL 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $293.95.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$293.95。
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 15, 2026
RCL reclaimed its 200-day averageRCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $292.17.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$292.17。
Jul 15, 2026
RCL StochRSI turned up from oversoldRCL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $292.17.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$292.17。
Jul 14, 2026
RCL lost its 200-day averageRCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $283.09.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$283.09。
Jul 9, 2026
RCL reclaimed its 200-day averageRCL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $288.08.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$288.08。
Jul 7, 2026
RCL lost its 200-day averageRCL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $282.26.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$282.26。
Jul 2, 2026
RCL daily MACD crossed downRCL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $296.30.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$296.30。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 2826 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Royal Caribbean Group, formerly known as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., is a cruise holding company headquartered in Miami, Florida, United States and incorporated in Liberia. It is the world's second-largest cruise line operator, after Carnival Corporation & plc.Royal Caribbean Group 前身为皇家加勒比邮轮有限公司，是一家邮轮控股公司，总部位于美国佛罗里达州迈阿密，并在利比里亚注册。它是全球第二大邮轮运营商，仅次于嘉年华公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 18.1× | 20.0× | 57% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 14.3× | — | — |
| Price / Book市净率 | 7.7× | 2.9× | 21% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 4.3× | 1.2× | 6% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 12.0× | 11.4× | 44% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.5% | 4.6% | 62% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.3% | 8.6% | 48% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 17% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
56/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
44/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
53/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
19/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#110 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.8% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -8.4% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +6.0% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +4.1% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +2.1% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -16.9% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +187.4% | +69.9% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +272.9% | +82.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.73
Volatility rank波动率分位
20th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.7% of float
Market cap市值
$77B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$15.78
Dividend yield股息率
1.74%
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-20.4%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
0.7×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $2.2B | $1.5B | $8.8B | $13.9B | $16.5B | $17.9B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-27.05 | $-20.89 | $-8.45 | $6.31 | $10.94 | $15.61 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-5.7B | $-4.1B | $-2.2B | $580M | $2.0B | $1.2B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | -25.2% | -73.5% | 25.2% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| Net margin净利率 | -262.5% | -343.3% | -24.4% | 12.2% | 17.5% | 23.8% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -257.9% | -268.1% | -25.2% | 4.2% | 12.1% | 6.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$17.9B
Net income净利润
$4.3B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$6.5B
Total assets总资产
$41.6B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$10.0B
Buybacks股票回购
$1.2B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.27B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
42.5%
Return on assets资产回报率
10.3%
Revenue growth营收增速
+11.3%
Profit growth利润增速
+48.3%
Asset growth资产增速
+12.3%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: gross margin +74.6pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 74.6 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.22 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.22——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
46
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
27
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
12
Average daily range平均日波幅
4.1%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-4.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+0.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+0.6%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
Monthly月线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
59/100
All tracked signals全部跟踪信号
| Signal信号 | State状态 | Age距今 |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 49d |
| Golden Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 25d |
| Golden Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Death Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Death Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 114d |
| Death Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 119d |
| MA Buy (7) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| MA Buy (21) | quiet静默 | 36d |
| MA Buy (35) | quiet静默 | 52d |
| MA Buy (100) | quiet静默 | 8d |
| MA Sell (7) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| MA Sell (21) | quiet静默 | 15d |
| MA Sell (35) | quiet静默 | 11d |
| MA Sell (100) | quiet静默 | 10d |
| Pivot Bottom | quiet静默 | 994d |
| Pivot Top | quiet静默 | 162d |
| RSI-14 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 239d |
| RSI-14 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 169d |
| RSI-21 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 220d |
| RSI-21 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 386d |
| Double Bottom (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 30d |
| Double Bottom (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| Double Top (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 36d |
| Double Top (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 15d |
| Bollinger Breakout Up | quiet静默 | 32d |
| Bollinger Breakout Down | quiet静默 | 80d |
| Short-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Short-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Possible Runner (Momentum Breakout) | quiet静默 | 169d |
| 1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Strong 1-Day Move Flag | quiet静默 | — |
| Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Undervalued — composite multiples in cheapest decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Insider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Below Cloud | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Bullish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses above Kijun) | quiet静默 | 44d |
| Ichimoku — Bearish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses below Kijun) | quiet静默 | 4d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakout Up (Price crosses above Kumo) | quiet静默 | 36d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakdown (Price crosses below Kumo) | quiet静默 | 37d |
| Trend Ribbon — Uptrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Downtrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Uptrend | quiet静默 | 36d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Downtrend | quiet静默 | 70d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up | quiet静默 | 2d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Below 30 | quiet静默 | — |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Above 80 (reference band) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Upper Band Rejection (Wick above, Close below) | quiet静默 | 22d |
| Bollinger Lower Band Reclaim (Wick below, Close above) | quiet静默 | 58d |
| Bollinger Band Walk Up (Close above upper band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Band Walk Down (Close below lower band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| MACD bullish cross | quiet静默 | 52d |
| MACD bearish cross | quiet静默 | 15d |
| RSI crosses above 50 | quiet静默 | 1d |
| RSI crosses below 50 | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 8d |
| Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | quiet静默 | 18d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 35d |
| Golden Star (7/35) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 168d |
| Golden Star (21/100) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 7038d |
| Golden Star (50/200) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| Death Star (7/35) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 59d |
| Death Star (21/100) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 112d |
| Death Star (50/200) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| New Golden Star — freshly fired Golden Star (7/35), age ≤ 1 trading day | quiet静默 | 165d |
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
3
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-1
Analyst view分析师观点
Forward P/E预测市盈率
14.3×
Profit margin净利率
24.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$292
Put wall看跌期权墙
$270
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$290
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$270
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.0%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$627.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 7
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.7%
Days to cover回补天数
4.3
Short interest change空头变化
-0.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
May · 83%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 40%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 80% | +15.4% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 40% | -2.9% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 40% | -7.0% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 60% | +0.8% | 5 |
| May5月 | 83% | +10.4% | 6 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +12.5% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 50% | +1.9% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 80% | +7.6% | 5 |
| Sep9月 | 40% | -5.2% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 40% | -5.0% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 60% | +13.1% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 60% | +5.7% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Jul: +3.2% avg, up 59% of years (n=34)7月：平均 +3.2%，59% 的年份上涨（n=34）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。