Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / CVNA
Carvana · Consumer Disc.
CVNA US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Carvana Co. is an American online used car retailer based in Tempe, Arizona.Carvana公司是一家美国在线二手车零售商，总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩。
Cyclical周期股
Consumer Disc.
S&P 500标普500
$67.34
-$3.32 · -4.70%
52w low52周低 $54.46high高 $97.38
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~9+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 9+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21MA Sell (7)MA Sell (35)MA Sell (100)Strong 1-Day Move Flag
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-1.7% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-7.5% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
10
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility波动率
44th percentile第44百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-299days to go天后公布
Estimates being raised — 6 analysts预期上调 — 6 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -11.9% (20d)财报后漂移：-11.9%（20日）
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 29.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
20.6%
Operating margin营业利润率
9.3%
Net margin净利率
6.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
5.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Return on equity股本回报率 41%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Current ratio流动比率4.31
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±5.54%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±12.40%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$66
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.9%
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$257.7M net (0 buyers, 11 sellers)-$257.7M 净值（0 买家，11 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Capital Partners | A | New position新建仓 | 1.9% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dragoneer Investment Group | C | Adding加仓 | 13.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Adding加仓 | 6.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Adding加仓 | 2.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Holding持有 | 4.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Durable Capital Partners | B | Holding持有 | 3.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | trimtrim | 3.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Coatue Management | A | trimtrim | 0.7% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY. Mixed structure. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。结构混合。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 14, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
CVNA broke down vs the marketCVNA 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $64.99.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$64.99。
Jul 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 1, 2026
CVNA daily MACD crossed upCVNA 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $67.87.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$67.87。
Jun 30, 2026
TOPPING → NEARING A HIGH做顶中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 29, 2026
DOWNTREND → TOPPING下跌趋势 → 做顶中
SELL SETUP卖出预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 778 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Carvana Co. is an American online used car retailer based in Tempe, Arizona.Carvana公司是一家美国在线二手车零售商，总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
57/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
10/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
8/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
38/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#142 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.3% | -1.5% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +7.1% | +0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -13.1% | +4.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -24.0% | +7.8% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -15.9% | +9.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -2.7% | +19.4% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +746.0% | +69.4% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +7.5% | +83.9% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.35
Volatility rank波动率分位
44th pctile
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-29.6%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
0.7×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $5.6B | $12.8B | $13.6B | $10.8B | $13.7B | $20.3B |
| EPS每股收益 | — | $-1.63 | $-15.74 | $0.75 | $1.59 | $8.45 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-968M | $-3.2B | $-1.8B | $716M | $827M | $889M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 14.2% | 15.1% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 21.0% | 20.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | -3.1% | -1.1% | -11.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -17.3% | -24.6% | -13.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$20.3B
Gross profit毛利润
$4.2B
Net income净利润
$1.4B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.0B
Total assets总资产
$13.2B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$3.4B
Long-term debt长期负债
$4.8B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
40.9%
Return on assets资产回报率
10.7%
Debt / assets负债/资产
36.6%
Profit growth利润增速
+570.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+55.6%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: gross margin +6.4pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 6.4 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +55.6% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +55.6%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: leverage unremarkable资产负债表：杠杆水平一般
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
49
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
18
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
10
Average daily range平均日波幅
6.0%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+0.4%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-1.7%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-7.5%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Monthly月线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
13/100
All tracked signals全部跟踪信号
| Signal信号 | State状态 | Age距今 |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Golden Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 72d |
| Golden Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 1122d |
| Death Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 4d |
| Death Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 56d |
| Death Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 113d |
| MA Buy (7) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (21) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (35) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (100) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Sell (7) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| MA Sell (21) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| MA Sell (35) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| MA Sell (100) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Pivot Bottom | quiet静默 | 273d |
| Pivot Top | quiet静默 | 211d |
| RSI-14 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 63d |
| RSI-14 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 88d |
| RSI-21 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 59d |
| RSI-21 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 211d |
| Double Bottom (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 11d |
| Double Bottom (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 11d |
| Double Top (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 4d |
| Double Top (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 4d |
| Bollinger Breakout Up | quiet静默 | 91d |
| Bollinger Breakout Down | quiet静默 | 65d |
| Short-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Short-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Possible Runner (Momentum Breakout) | quiet静默 | 210d |
| 1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Strong 1-Day Move Flag | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers) | quiet静默 | — |
| Undervalued — composite multiples in cheapest decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Price Below Cloud | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Bullish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses above Kijun) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| Ichimoku — Bearish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses below Kijun) | quiet静默 | 63d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakout Up (Price crosses above Kumo) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakdown (Price crosses below Kumo) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Trend Ribbon — Uptrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Downtrend State | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Uptrend | quiet静默 | 88d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Downtrend | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Below 30 | quiet静默 | — |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Above 80 (reference band) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Upper Band Rejection (Wick above, Close below) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Bollinger Lower Band Reclaim (Wick below, Close above) | quiet静默 | 58d |
| Bollinger Band Walk Up (Close above upper band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Band Walk Down (Close below lower band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| MACD bullish cross | quiet静默 | 16d |
| MACD bearish cross | quiet静默 | 21d |
| RSI crosses above 50 | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI crosses below 50 | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 42d |
| Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 102d |
| Golden Star (7/35) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 385d |
| Golden Star (21/100) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 70d |
| Golden Star (50/200) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| Death Star (7/35) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 1705d |
| Death Star (21/100) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| Death Star (50/200) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| New Golden Star — freshly fired Golden Star (7/35), age ≤ 1 trading day | quiet静默 | 382d |
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
6
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+2.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+6
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$70
Put wall看跌期权墙
$60
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$66
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$70
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$60
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-3.5%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Capital Partners | A | New position新建仓 | 1.9% | $210M |
| Dragoneer Investment Group | C | Adding增持 | 13.1% | $394M |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Adding增持 | 6.0% | $248M |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Adding增持 | 2.4% | $874M |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Holding持有 | 4.4% | $552M |
| Durable Capital Partners | B | Holding持有 | 3.2% | $313M |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | Trimming减持 | 3.6% | $276M |
| Coatue Management | A | Trimming减持 | 0.7% | $214M |
| Polen Capital Management | B | Trimming减持 | 0.0% | $2M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
9
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
4 : 3
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$257.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 11
Days to cover回补天数
5.4
Short interest change空头变化
-2.0%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P RetailSPDR S&P Retail
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jan · 40%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 40% | -2.8% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 40% | -3.1% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 40% | -4.4% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 40% | -4.5% | 5 |
| May5月 | 67% | +24.3% | 6 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +13.6% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +16.3% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 60% | +12.6% | 5 |
| Sep9月 | 40% | -8.0% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 40% | -18.1% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 60% | +5.8% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 40% | -16.1% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Jul: +16.9% avg, up 90% of years (n=10)7月：平均 +16.9%，90% 的年份上涨（n=10）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。