Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / UPS
United Parcel Service · Industrials
UPS US listed · USD美股 · 美元
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is an American multinational shipping-and-receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.联合包裹服务公司（UPS）是一家成立于1907年的美国跨国包裹收寄与供应链管理公司。
Cyclical周期股
Industrials
S&P 500标普500
$104.22
-$1.05 · -1.00%
52w low52周低 $77.28high高 $119
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
A cycle low is due in roughly ~0–9 trading days — watch for the turn, don't front-run it.周期低点预计在约 ~0–9 个交易日内出现——等待转向，切勿抢跑。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-08-03
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅作背景参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅作背景参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-03
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
38
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.1% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+2.9% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
80th percentile第80百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-042days to go天后公布
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -5.5% (20d)财报后漂移：-5.5%（20日）
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 0.9%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 33.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
8.9%
Net margin净利率
6.3%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
9.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/7
Return on equity股本回报率 34%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.68
Current ratio流动比率1.22
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.0B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$73.0M
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #17 of 47 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 47 个主题中第 17 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.80%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.03%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$101
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.9%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$2.7M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$2.7M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY. Day 35 of a typical 23-44-day cycle — inside the window where lows usually form, and short-term momentum is washed out. No confirmed turn yet准备。典型 23-44 天周期的第 35 天——处于低点通常形成的窗口内，且短期动量已被洗净。尚无确认的转向
Jul 30, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 24, 2026
UPS daily MACD crossed downUPS 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $114.79.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$114.79。
Jul 23, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 16, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 16, 2026
UPS made a new 52-week highUPS 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $117.18.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$117.18。
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 10, 2026
UPS took relative-strength leadershipUPS 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $112.47.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$112.47。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 105 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is an American multinational shipping-and-receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.联合包裹服务公司（UPS）是一家成立于1907年的美国跨国包裹收寄与供应链管理公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
47/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
32/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
37/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
59/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#71 / 261
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -9.2% | +1.1% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -4.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -1.5% | +3.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +1.2% | +8.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +6.4% | +9.6% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +29.3% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.82
Volatility rank波动率分位
80th pctile
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-11.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $84.6B | $97.3B | $100.3B | $91.0B | $91.1B | $88.7B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.54 | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.75 | $6.56 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $5.0B | $10.8B | $9.3B | $5.1B | $6.2B | $4.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 1.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 6.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$88.7B
Net income净利润
$5.6B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$8.4B
Total assets总资产
$73.1B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$16.2B
Buybacks股票回购
$1.0B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
34.3%
Return on assets资产回报率
7.6%
Profit growth利润增速
-3.6%
Asset growth资产增速
+4.3%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
38
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
14
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-6.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+2.9%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
65/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$110
Put wall看跌期权墙
$95
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$101
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$105
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$100
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+2.8%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$2.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Days to cover回补天数
6.3
Short interest change空头变化
+5.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。