Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / WSO
Watsco · Industrials
WSO US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Watsco, Inc. is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies (HVAC/R) in the United States.Watsco, Inc. 是美国一家空调、供暖和制冷设备及相关零件和耗材（HVAC/R）的分销商。
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
$322.98
Regular quote常规时段报价
-$4.06 · -1.24%
Extended quote unavailable. Showing the regular quote.盘前盘后报价暂不可用，现显示常规时段报价。
Pre-market盘前
·
52w low52周低 $273high高 $464
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Confirmed cycle low — the entry window is open now, with a clear exit if it closes back below 276.82.周期低点已确认——入场窗口现已开启，若收盘重新跌破 276.82 则明确离场。
As of 2026-10-26截至 2026-10-26
Company news公司新闻
The latest reporting最新报道
One story, with the reporting behind it.将同一事件汇总，保留各来源报道。
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-10-26
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
65
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+5.7% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-11.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
75th percentile第75百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-0410
Estimates being cut预期下调
Mixed — beat 1 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 1 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: -2.1% (20d)财报后漂移：-2.1%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 -4.9%
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$7.2B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 7.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
$12.252025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 11.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$535.1M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
28.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
10.0%
Net margin净利率
8.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
7.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/7
Return on equity股本回报率 21%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.57
Current ratio流动比率4.12
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Its filings are available, but they do not break debt down by the year it comes due — every bucket below is unreported.已获取该公司的 SEC 文件，但文件中未按到期年度拆分债务 —— 以下各区间均未披露。
Next 12 months未来12个月
not reported未披露
Year 2第2年
not reported未披露
Year 3第3年
not reported未披露
Year 4第4年
not reported未披露
Year 5第5年
not reported未披露
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Not every company reports a year-by-year schedule. Nothing is being estimated in its place.并非所有公司都会披露逐年到期安排；此处不作任何估算替代。
Cash reported at 2025-12-31: $433283000.截至 2025-12-31 披露的现金：$433283000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31; no cash burn to measure.在 2025-01-01 至 2025-12-31 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Capital-need coverage is partial; incomplete or incompatible filing inputs are not combined.资本需求覆盖信息不完整；不会合并不完整或不兼容的报告数据。
Any available cash-flow scenario is context only. Missing or incompatible inputs are not replaced with zero or a financing forecast.可用现金流情景仅供参考；缺失或不兼容的输入不以零值或融资预测替代。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Annual period年度区间 2025-01-01 — 2025-12-31 · USD · 10-K · 0001193125-26-082486 · Filed提交日期 2026-02-27.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-10-05T09:40:53.486419+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-10-26.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $569613000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $34550000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $535063000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrial Distribution & Capital Goods theme — #20 of 49 themes「工业分销与资本品」主题 — 49 个主题中第 20 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
WSO daily MACD crossed upWSO 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.45%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.47%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-8.8%
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FConcentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | New position新建仓 | 0.9% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY. New daily cycle, day 10: swing low in, price back above the 10-day average, daily momentum positive — and the weekly timeframe agrees买入。新的日线周期，第 10 天：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线，日线动量为正——且周线周期也一致确认
Oct 15, 2026
WSO daily MACD crossed upWSO 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $296.20.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$296.20。
Oct 13, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Oct 13, 2026
WSO StochRSI turned up from oversoldWSO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $288.29.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$288.29。
Oct 9, 2026
WSO printed a daily-cycle lowWSO 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $276.82.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$276.82。
Oct 7, 2026
WSO RSI reached oversoldWSO RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $279.54.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$279.54。
Oct 2, 2026
WSO made a new 52-week lowWSO 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $294.19.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$294.19。
Oct 1, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 30, 2026
WSO daily MACD crossed downWSO 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $299.35.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$299.35。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 283 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Watsco, Inc. is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies (HVAC/R) in the United States.Watsco, Inc. 是美国一家空调、供暖和制冷设备及相关零件和耗材（HVAC/R）的分销商。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Profitability盈利能力
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
33/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
28/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#222 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +9.1% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +0.4% | -1.0% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -10.8% | +3.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -26.7% | +7.0% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -5.5% | +12.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -8.6% | +14.4% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -0.7% | +86.0% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.12
Volatility rank波动率分位
75th pctile
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-29.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $5.1B | $6.3B | $7.3B | $7.3B | $7.6B | $7.2B |
| EPS每股收益 | $7.01 | $10.78 | $15.41 | $13.67 | $13.30 | $12.25 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $518M | $324M | $536M | $526M | $743M | $535M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 24.2% | 26.6% | 27.9% | 27.4% | 26.8% | 28.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 10.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$7.2B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.0B
Net income净利润
$588M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$570M
Total assets总资产
$4.4B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.8B
Dividends paid股息支出
$474M
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
21.1%
Return on assets资产回报率
13.3%
Profit growth利润增速
-7.6%
Asset growth资产增速
-1.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +77% vs sales +43% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +77% 对销售 +43%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +3.8pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 3.8 个百分点
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
65
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
75
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+9.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+5.7%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-11.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
72/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $4.00 | $4.38 | -8.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $1.87 | $1.73 | +8.1% |
| Dec 2025 | $1.68 | $1.94 | -13.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $3.98 | $4.21 | -5.5% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-3.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$340
Put wall看跌期权墙
$290
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$380
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$310
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-8.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | New position新建仓 | 0.9% | $27M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Days to cover回补天数
7.7
Short interest change空头变化
+4.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Feb · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Oct · 25%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +1.7% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 100% | +5.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +1.2% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +4.7% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -3.3% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -0.3% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 67% | +3.1% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 33% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 75% | +3.7% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 25% | -3.1% | 4 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +9.4% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -2.4% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。