Americas Energy US Majors Higher Estimates Offset By Slightly Lower Multiples; Highlight COP (Buy, on CL)

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 7:35AM EDT

US Majors: Higher Estimates Offset By Slightly Lower Multiples; Highlight COP (Buy, on CL)

In this note, we update estimates for ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), and Neil Mehta | ConocoPhillips (COP) to reflect higher commodity prices and refining margins. We Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

raise our Brent oil price estimate to $80/b in 2027, while maintaining $75/b in 2028 Lydia Gould | with a constant $5/b Brent-WTI spread. We also raise our crack spread estimates, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC with NYH (Brent) 5:3:2 increasing from roughly $26/b in 2028 to $29/b, to reflect Josiah Knight | tighter refining fundamentals, including low inventory levels, global supply Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC disruptions, resilient demand, and widening crude differentials. Among U.S. Majors, we continue to highlight Buy-ratings on CVX and COP, with 15% and 17% total return potential from current levels, respectively. Please see here for additional details on our recent roundtable event with CVX.

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Exhibit 1: U.S. Majors Comp Sheet Price Target Dividend Yield Return Tot Ret EV / DACF ND / EBITDA FCF / Equity Value Rating 9/21/26 12 Mo. % % 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E US Majors XOM Neutral $158.30 $169.00 2.6% 7% 9% 8.3x 9.2x 9.8x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 9% 7% 6% CVX Buy $203.67 $228.00 3.5% 12% 15% 6.9x 7.8x 8.4x 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 11% 9% 8% COP Buy $127.53 $146.00 2.6% 14% 17% 6.4x 6.7x 6.9x 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x 9% 8% 8% Average/Sum -- -- -- 2.9% 11% 14% 7.2x 7.9x 8.4x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 9% 8% 7%

Source: Factset, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ExxonMobil (XOM) n Our View. We expect shares to continue to benefit from greater refining exposure and positive estimate revisions into the quarter, where management sees elevated margins driven partly by lower Chinese exports and product supply disruptions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, amid some evidence of demand destruction. We also highlight strong operations across advantaged assets, including Guyana, where the company is accelerating cost and capital recovery and evaluating a ninth FPSO, and the Permian Basin, where it is developing stackable technologies to improve productivity. As the company invests in frontier exploration, we look for commentary on potential Venezuela activity. Management also continues to advance major global export projects in a tight supply backdrop, expecting to increase ownership in Papua New Guinea LNG, while targeting final investment decisions for both Mozambique LNG and Papua New Guinea LNG later this year. With this said, relative valuation keeps us on the sidelines, as shares trade at a 6% free cash flow yield in 2028 at $75/b Brent, compared to an average 8% for CVX and COP. Investors also note greater relative Middle East exposure, where management expects a full 3Q26 closure of the Strait of Hormuz to reduce regional production by ~750 kbd relative to 2025. n Valuation & Key Risks. We are Neutral-rated on XOM, and our 12-month EV/DACF, FCF Yield, and P/E-based price target is now $169 (from $168 prior). We apply a target 9.0x EV/DACF multiple (from 9.5x prior), 15.5x P/E multiple (from 16.0x prior), and 6.5% free cash flow yield (from 6.0% prior) to reflect higher mid-cycle earnings in estimates. Our 2026-2028 EPS estimates are now $12.59/$11.87/$10.87 (from $11.47/$10.54/$10.81 prior) to reflect updated commodity prices and refining margins, and adjustments to production and pricing realizations. Key risks relate to commodity prices, refining margins, and operational execution.

Chevron Corp (CVX) n Our View. We highlight strong execution across the base business, in…