Americas Retail Takeaways from IR management

Equity Research 21 September 2026 | 6:00AM EDT

Americas Retail: Takeaways from IR/management; Price vs. Value perception analysis; Commentary on efficiencies from AI

In this note, we discuss the key takeaways from meetings with the IR/management Kate McShane, CFA | teams of Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO), National Vision Holdings (EYE), and RH. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC We also analyze HundredX trends on value vs. price perceptions for our coverage Mark Jordan, CFA universe, following the 2026 GS Global Retail Conference (Day 1 and Day 2 | takeaways). Finally, we provide commentary from our covered companies on where Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

they see efficiencies from AI. Emily Ghosh | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Takeaways from IR/management meetings Nishi Agarwal | Goldman Sachs India SPL

Grace Chee ASO | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC The World Cup performed in-line with expectations. The company called out Samantha Chiang strength in areas such as jerseys and tees. That said, the event was not completely | additive; given the World Cup was at the peak of Father’s Day, some customers who Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC may have purchased other items for Father’s Day likely bought World Cup products instead. Academy was also up against Oklahoma City winning the championship last year, which dampened the effect a bit, and the company did not have the Knicks championship win in its footprint. Moreover, management explained that many customers wanted World Cup jerseys and there was only a finite amount, which capped the upside. On the other hand, within sporting goods, the company is seeing a World Cup effect with soccer gear sales running +DD in 2Q. Looking ahead, management expects this trend to continue through the remainder of the year and into next year.

Academy is not as impacted by current industry-wide promotions. Within the sporting goods industry, management explained that while select peers are citing a slowdown in lifestyle footwear, it is largely impacting mall-based chains and items that are not a key part of Academy’s assortment. In the styles Academy carries, there is not an excess of supply. Management also highlighted that Academy benefits from its diverse assortment; the company has a large outdoor business, and within footwear, the company sells cleats and performance running, along with categories such as work boots and seasonal items. In FY25, footwear was 20% of Academy’s sales.

The company expects gross margins to be about flat y/y in 2H. Tailwinds include shrink and a lower overall tariff rate, while the company expects to reinvest in price,

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and management believes fuel will remain elevated for the balance of the year.

Looking to the remainder of the year, we are encouraged that Academy continues to make merchandising improvements and introduce new brands (including the upcoming launch of HOKA in 15 stores and online) which is starting to drive slightly better SSS. The company’s diversified portfolio that leans more to outdoor should also insulate it from the slow down and promotions in lifestyle athletic footwear over the next several quarters. We currently estimate 3Q SSS of +1.2%, above consensus (FactSet) at +0.5%, and 3Q adj. EPS of $1.31, slightly below consensus at $1.32. For the year, we estimate FY26 SSS of +1.4%, above consensus at +0.9%, and adj. EPS of $6.81, above consensus at $6.71.

EYE Ticket growth and traffic outlook. Management noted that one of the most common investor questions is whether average ticket growth can remain durable as the company laps strong comparisons. Unlike traditional retail categories, the company emphasized that optical is a highly consultative business, where ticket…