BNZ Markets Today 04 August 2026

Research Markets Today 4 August 2026

Events round-up new orders increasing to 56.7, and the employment index moving back above 50 for the first time since 2023, up to NZ: Dwelling consents (m/m%), Jun: -3.6 vs. -4.9 prev. 52.8. The data point to strong positive growth momentum in the sector. While the prices paid index dipped CH: RatingDog PMI manufacturing, Jul: 50.9 vs. 51.7 prev. somewhat to 71.1, the supplier delivery times and order US: ISM Manufacturing, Jul: 55.6 vs. 53.9 exp. backlog components — more reliable indicators of core goods inflation — suggest rising inflationary pressure. Good morning Lower oil prices and Treasury yields have supported the US The new week began with oil prices plunging on hopes of equity market, which has also been boosted by strong some form of resolution in the Middle East, while yen gains across the Magnificent 7 stocks, with an index of volatility continued in the wake of official joint US-Japan those names up 4% on the day. In late-afternoon trading, intervention late last week. Lower oil prices have eased the S&P500 is up 1.5%, while the Nasdaq is up 2.2%. pressure on the bond market and contributed to positive equity market gains. The USD is broadly stronger In the currency market, the yen has remained in focus. overnight. Following official intervention late last week to support the yen, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama confirmed the first Fresh from winning the Bedminster Senior Men’s golf club joint US intervention with Japan in currency markets in 15 championship for at least the fourth year in a row (with a years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would little help from his caddie, no doubt) President Trump told not hesitate to step into the market again, while Trump reporters that new talks with Iran would begin on Monday. described the intervention as a signal of friendship. Japan’s This followed weekend reports that he had agreed to currency chief Mimura said Japan would respond to FX cancel a major attack on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign moves in coordination with monetary policy, hinting that minister said Iran was not currently negotiating with the the BoJ might be more inclined to raise interest rates in US, although talks with Oman about a temporary route the future. through the Strait of Hormuz were in their final stages. These headlines flushed out more speculators who had Overnight, Trump reacted with an outburst on social been holding short-yen positions, driving USD/JPY sharply media. While his message contained no new threats, he lower after the Japanese market open to a low of 155.23. noted US control of the Strait through its blockade and said However, the yen subsequently weakened and has nothing would get through to Iran unless a deal, or total continued to do so overnight, with USD/JPY currently near surrender, was achieved. In the past hour, Trump has 157. NZD/JPY has settled around 92. A widely held view is spoken to reporters in the Oval Office and claimed that that, without considerable BoJ policy tightening, yen talks with Iran were ongoing and that they were discussing intervention will have only a temporary impact. The BoJ’s reopening the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow. ultra-easy policy stance remains the key reason behind the yen’s steady depreciation over recent years. The aim of Oil prices opened the new week significantly lower, with joint US-Japan intervention, or the threat of it, will be to Brent crude falling to USD81.55 per barrel before settling encourage speculators to think twice before loading up on into an approximate USD82.50–84.50 range, where it has short-yen positions. since remained. The USD has been broadly stronger overnight, unwinding The plunge in oil prices drove US Treasury yields lower some of last week’s losses, with additional support when Asia opened, and they have since traded within a following the ISM survey. After reaching a fresh two- tight range of 4.67–4.70% for the 10-year rate. The month high above 0.59 in early Asian trading yesterday, reaction to the strong ISM manufacturing survey was the NZD has steadily fallen and traded as low as 0.5860. muted, with the curve slightly flattening. The AUD is back…