GS Novak GS U.S. Industrials Materials Fed LEN GNRC

GS Novak - GS U.S. Industrials Materials Fed LEN GNRC 17 Sep 2026 Ryan Novak · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Wed 17 Sep 2026, 6:17am ET

Good morning – futures sharply higher in early pre-market trading up 80bps led by technology shares after digesting the Fed decision and press conference yesterday. BOE is up next with market expectations for a hold. Trade tensions continue to escalate with POTUS suggesting more EU tariffs if the bloc includes Canada as a member state. Watching claims and housing starts today in terms of incremental data points. Overseas markets are relatively calms with KOSPI flat (when is the last time we saw that), Europe up 50- 75bps. In commodities, crude continues to take a breather with WTI down to $101, Brent $104. Corn continues to hit new highs $5.35 spot with agricultural stocks reacting in sympathy. 10-year just below 5%, dollar strong DXY holding above $100 and Bitcoin $76k flat overnight. We’ll host a breakfast with fundamental and merger arb investors this morning to discuss the upcoming CTVA spin after the analyst days earlier this week then I will do some meetings on builders and building products – reach out to discuss takeaways from both.

Bloomberg as of 9/16/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GS take on the Fed – full details here: The FOMC raised the funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4% today. While the hike was widely expected, the meeting was more hawkish than we expected in a few ways. First, a 16- 2 majority projected at least one more hike this year, and there were no dissenting votes against today’s hike. Second, the median funds rate projection remained quite elevated through 2029, and the median neutral rate dot rose from 3.06% to 3.25%. Third, Chairman Warsh described the hike as having “removed a dose of accommodation” three times.

We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October, a change from our previous expectation that September would be the only hike. We think October is the most likely time for the next move because it is most natural to deliver hikes that the FOMC presented today as supporting “a timelier return” to the 2% target at consecutive meetings. We have kept our forecast for the terminal rate unchanged at 3.25-3.5% by adding to the September and December 2027 rate cuts we already expected a third 25bp cut in March 2028.

Additional hikes are possible but not our base case. One reason is that our forecast for core PCE inflation remains below the median FOMC participant’s forecast at 3.2% (vs. 3.4% for the FOMC) in 2026 Q4/Q4 and 2.2% (vs. 2.5% for the FOMC) in 2027 Q4/Q4. Some of the gap for 2026 could come from a reluctance on the part of some FOMC participants to pencil in a downward revision from methodological revisions that will be implemented later this month, which we estimate will be worth -0.2pp on the year- over-year rate, until the impact is clear.

On the micro … LEN out post close with an EPS miss in the face of a Fed rate hike. Q3 EPS $1.19 vs. $1.28 on revenue that came in below $8.05bn vs. $8.32bn. New orders starting to face tougher comps down 9% to 20,879. Backlog of 16,857 with a dollar value of $6.3bn. Deliveries down 3% to 20,840. Guides Q4 new orders 19.5-20.5k, deliveries 22-23k. ASP 370-380k, gross margins 15.5-16% slightly below Q3 at the midpoint. Sue’s first take here. GFL interview on Bloomberg citing CEO would consider going private – article reminding that the board formed a special committee in July after receiving unsolicited preliminary expressions of interest. GNRC out with a transaction and supply agreement with AMZN to issue a warrant to acquire up to 1.6932mm shares of stock at $200.93 per share vs. $175mm closing price. $2.4bn of initial deliveries in 2027 and 2028 with a total of up $8bn. Reminder base revenue is $5bn in fiscal 2026. $235 a big level to breakout of today. CACI with contract from US Central Command with $1.5bn ceiling. EQPT small insider buying. Conferences have delivered plenty of updates – BA FTV GEV AAL DOW LEA case in point yesterday – reach out to discuss those and what we are hearing from the halls. More today with AN EME LMT F GE NOC LECO CNH IR HUBB CRH SWK CP FLY OTIS OSK…