GS Crook GS MORNING BoJ Review Gold Update CEE FX Thoughts GS Webcast Replay

GS Crook - GS MORNING BoJ Review Gold Update CEE FX Thoughts GS Webcast Replay 18 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Fri 18 Sep 2026, 4:40am ET

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) BoJ Review, 2) Gold Update, 3) CEE FX Thoughts and 4) GS Webcast Replay 1) BoJ Review BoJ overnight

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) BoJ Review, 2) Gold Update, 3) CEE FX Thoughts and 4) GS Webcast Replay

BoJ overnight, with the bank raising its interest rate to 1.25% in a split decision. The most notable takeaway from the decision being the two Takaichi-appointed board members (Toichiro Asada & Ayano Sato) dissenting in favour of a hold. We would also note that the next two board members to be replaced (midway through next year) are two of the most hawkish on the board (Takata & Tamura), which some in the market thought may dissent in favour of a 50bp hike today (although they did dissent on the language).

Views from FX Strategy and FX Options Trading below.

FX STRATEGY (FISHMAN): Takata and Tamura dissented on the language around price stability— saying that they already consider underlying inflation at target rather than “coming to a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target.” Economic activity and prices are described as evolving in line with the July outlook report. But the guidance was left largely unchanged, noting that rate hikes will continue and the Board will consider the timing and pace of adjustment. The statement also kept the line on the “risk that [underlying inflation] will deviate upward to a level above the price stability target of 2 percent,” implying continued concern about upside inflation risks even with today’s hike.

Overall, the consistent message from the meetings since April through July has been growing concern about the upside risks to inflation, not just from JPY depreciation, but also from energy prices, AI-driven demand, firmer wage growth, and rising long-term inflation expectations—all of which (excluding JPY) have remained true since July. Today’s decision shows a more divided Board, but the bar was high for a hawkish surprise in the statement, and the BoJ has now hiked at a faster pace than before, having raised rates in June and September.

We've been highlighting the attractive asymmetry in short USD/JPY over the longer-term in part given the higher probability of a faster pace of BoJ hikes (as well as potential Japanese investor reallocation flows back towards domestic assets). While the lack of i/ a hawkish shift in today’s statement and ii/ any dissents for 50bp has naturally driven some pullback in near-term pricing, the stance was largely unchanged. How Ueda frames the balance of risks in the press conference, and if he emphasizes flexibility in future adjustments (or not), will help guide how much weight to put on today’s dissents.

FX OPTIONS TRADING (BULL): USDJPY trading ~1% higher on the day. We the size of the move so far supports our view that we will see further gamma demand. We expect topside interest as some of the bullish JPY narrative from the last few weeks unwinds and the mkt chases the move higher. Rates pricing had shown high expectations for a more hawkish shift, and our flows have continued to be heavily skewed for downside going into today, while topside positioning is light. In the other direction conversations will naturally turn to intervention risks with spot 4 figures off the lows and strong rhetoric from the Treasury lately about avoiding JPY weakness, and so existing dealer positioning short downside gamma should keep vols elevated.

CHART 1: BoJ Pricing & Overnight Change

| | Live | Step | Cumulative | | Stub | 1.2250 | | | | Nov-26 | 1.2810 | 5.6 | 5.6 | | Dec-26 | 1.4360 | 15.5 | 21.1 | | Jan-27 | 1.5310 | 9.5 | 30.6 | | Mar-27 | 1.6330 | 10.2 | 40.8 | | Apr-27 | 1.7210 | 8.8 | 49.6 | | Jun-27 | 1.8100 | 8.9 | 58.5 | | Jul-27 | 1.8810 | 7.1 | 65.6 |

Source: BBG, GS FICC & Equities, as of 18-Sep

2) COMMODITIES RESEARCH (THOMAS) – Fed Hikes to Slow, Rather than Derail, the Gold Rally – LINK

BOTTOM LINE: We maintain our $5,400/toz end-2027 gold forecast despite yesterday's Fed hike and our economists now expecting an…