GS Blekos Marketcolour Equity Strategy CTA Transport Chartpack Renk Up

GS Blekos - Marketcolour Equity Strategy CTA Transport Chartpack Renk Up 18 Sep 2026 Ioannis Blekos · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Fri 18 Sep 2026, 2:25am ET

Good Morning, US equities ended Thursday higher, as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both posted their best days since 4-Aug: SPX +114bps to 7637 (9/11 sectors

US equities ended Thursday higher, as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both posted their best days since 4-Aug: SPX +114bps to 7637 (9/11 sectors +ve, Tech +2.20%, Consumer Disc. +1.43%), NDX +173bps to 29,446, RTY +55bps to 2874. Big tech saw strong gains with the GS Quantum Computing index (GSX1QNT1) +6.69%, and the GS AI Inference Chips (GSXYINFR) +4.46%. In singles, GNRC +18.3% after announcing a $2.4 billion deal to sell data center generators to Amazon, and FLNC -15.4% due to downward revision to FY26 revenue. In Europe, Momentum (GSPEMOMO +80ps) continuing to rebound from earlier this week as we saw a turn back towards Cyclicals (GSPECYDE +50bps).

Interesting: Our PB team puts US fundamental L/S Gross Leverage at 208.8% (31st percentile 1-year, 79th percentile 5-year), and Net Leverage at 48.8% (5th percentile 1-year, 9th percentile 5-year).

US Equity Strategy – No earnings bubble / 12m PT 8700: While there are indeed factors contributing to "over-earning" today, our base case is for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate, not collapse, in coming years. We forecast EPS growth of 11% in both 2027 (to $415) and 2028 ($460), driven by solid GDP growth and a fading tailwind from AI investment that gradually transitions into a growing boost from AI productivity. Link

Flow: Asset managers finished $396mm better to buy with demand in macro products, tech, and industrials vs. small supply in consumer discretionary and energy. Hedge Funds finished $658mm better to buy with demand in tech, consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials vs. supply in macro products and communication services.

CTA Update: CTAs are long $37.54bn of US equities (22nd percentile on 1y lookback) Over the next 1 week…Flat tape: Sellers $30.09B ($5.7B out of the US) // Up tape: Sellers $3.12B ($3.08B into the US) // Down tape: Sellers $55.28B ($14.26B out of the US). Over the next 1 month…Flat tape: Sellers $28.72B ($10.15B out of the US) / Up tape: Buyers $87.76B ($26.25B into the US) // Down tape: Sellers $199.06B ($72B out of the US).

Basket Idea / diversified healthcare GSXUHLTH: least correlated sector to AI, oil, and rates – the correlation is closer to zero rather than negative, while showing strong positive earnings revisions, especially within pockets of commercial biotech (GSHLCOMB).

Renk (Up to Buy / PT EUR65 / 60% Upside – Valuation Call): We see an attractive entry point, with meaningful upside to our DCF-based valuation and a clearer positive catalyst path. Our confidence is reinforced by RENK’s structural growth outlook, with strong earnings visibility underpinned by the sustained European land-defence cycle, rising defence spending and a substantial order backlog. Link

Allegro (N / PT PLN50 / 10% Upside): 3Q26-to-date GMV trading update and FY26 outlook reinforced a stronger operating narrative, with management upgrading FY26 guidance after better-than-expected momentum in both Poland and International Link

Transport Chartpack: Air & ocean freight markets remain in good shape, reflecting growth in goods- producing economies particularly out of Asia. Container rates have returned to the highs seen following the onset of the Red Sea disruption a few years ago. European short-haul airlines are facing significant financial pressure as supply growth has exceeded demand growth, with airfares broadly flat through the summer despite the surge in fuel prices. Link