Caris Life Sciences Inc. (CAI) CMS Releases Preliminary 2027 CLFS Rates; Positive Revision for CAI

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 11:10AM EDT

Caris Life Sciences Inc. (CAI): CMS Releases Preliminary 2027 CLFS Rates; Positive Revision for CAI

Yesterday, CMS released its Preliminary Calendar Year 2027 Medicare Clinical Evie Koslosky | Laboratory Fee Schedule Payment Rates. The preliminary CY27 PAMA fee schedule Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

is incrementally positive for CAI, in our view, as CMS maintained reimbursement Grey Smith | for MI Cancer Seek (tissue) at $8,455 while increasing reimbursement for Caris Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Assure (blood) to $5,250 from the current $3,649 (+44%). This should provide a Miki Dejena | tailwind to blood-based profiling revenue and ASPs beginning in 2027, while Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC preserving the favorable economics of the company’s core tissue franchise. Given management’s recent commentary that blood volume growth is accelerating following the sales force reorganization and dedicated commercial focus on liquid biopsy, the higher Medicare rate could further support mix-driven revenue upside as adoption scales.

We estimate the preliminary fee schedule update could represent approximately $15–20mn of annualized revenue upside based on our model. Overall, we view the update as another step in reducing reimbursement risk around Caris Assure and reinforcing confidence in the company’s ability to drive a shift to the faster-growing blood-based portfolio.

We are Buy rated on CAI. Our 12-month price target is $35. Our valuation methodology uses a target 7x Q5-Q8 EV/Sales. Key downside risks include: 1) Competitive Risks as Caris faces material competition in the therapy selection space in addition to upcoming product launches through its MCED, MRD, and other assays, 2) Trial risk with potential execution in a broader population as its first MCED trial was case controlled. This risk can lead to decreased performance of its screening tests and therefore impact how it is perceived by the market, 3) Execution Risks in receiving FDA approval and therefore CMS reimbursement remains a risk for future tests, and CAI has multiple upcoming submissions and launches that could pose challenges in addition to growing its pipeline of new products, and 4) CAI’s multi-channel approach to the MCED roll out (rather than a full sales force) could hinder the company’s ability to penetrate the market.

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Goldman Sachs Caris Life Sciences Inc. (CAI)

CAI 12m Price Target: $35.00 Price: $30.65 Upside: 14.2%

Buy GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market cap: $8.7bn Revenue ($ mn) 812.0 1,030.1 1,243.3 1,439.6 Enterprise value: $8.3bn EBITDA ($ mn) m ADTV: $105.4mn EBIT ($ mn) United States EPS ($) ( Americas Life Sciences Tools, P/E (X) NM NM 68.7 43.8 Diagnostics & CROs EV/EBITDA (X) M&A Rank: 3 FCF yield (%) 1.3 0.9 3.6 5.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt/EBITDA (X) (3.1) (2.2) (2.2) (2.4)

6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E EPS ($) (

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 21 Sep 2026 close.