China in Transition China's great Go Global expansion From peripheral to core

EQUITY RESEARCH | 14 September 2026 | 10:04PM HKT

China's great Go Global expansion - From peripheral to core

China's nearly 40% share of global markets may be unsurprising after a decade of domestic substitution. But with a sharp rise to an 18% share for Chinese players in ex-China markets, competition is now moving from peripheral towards core market segments of the leading global incumbents. We collaborated globally across 36 analysts using a framework of classic competitive analysis between new entrants and incumbents, encompassing 11 sectors and 40 companies, to ask what the learnings from past global expansions are, and how they help us think about the decade ahead.

Three surprising observations: (1) The biggest share gains for Chinese players have been in emerging markets, not the US-China markets which are perceived as the most contested. Chinese industrial products may be more disruptive, but consumer products (B2C) hold the highest adoption rates. (2) While Chinese exports are seen driving material deflation and typically enter at an average 30% discount, prices subsequently rose in 7 of 11 sectors post-entry. Prices tend to hold or rise when market demand and revenues are expanding, and only fall when top-line stress triggers. (3) Capital markets penalize share loss ruthlessly, but incumbent market cap loss isn’t always reflected in gains for Chinese companies.

From peripheral to core, we expect a more uncertain path ahead: Chinese companies' market shares to rise further to 31% by 2035E, with revenue growth of 3.6x, favoring the “latecomers”. We see a harder path and slower pace, as the competitive ground shifts toward core segments, where the moat of the incumbents is widest. The competitive response matters - incumbents that cede peripheral markets or lower-margin products risk giving Chinese entrants a beachhead from which to move upmarket. The next period of price compression is mostly likely catalyzed by demand downturns, and we see RVC and autos facing the most immediate risk. Finally, markets have yet to price in China's global growth opportunity, with a number of sectors trading at less than 1.0x sales ex China.

Trina Chen Allen Chang Jacqueline Du Ronald Keung, CFA Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C

Nicolas Yi Chris Pan, CFA Tina Hou Yuichiro Isayama oldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Securities Company Limited Securities Company Limited

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Contributing Authors Trina Chen Allen Chang Jacqueline Du Ronald Keung, CFA Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Nicolas Yi Chris Pan, CFA Tina Hou Yuichiro Isayama Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Securities Company Limited Securities Company Limited

Richard Edwards Christian Frenes Brooke Roach, CFA Patrick Creuset Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch

Susan Maklari Eric Sheridan Ajay Patel Giuni Lee Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

Joe Ritchie Ziyi Chen Zhou Li Cecilia Tang Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Securities Company Limited

Jenny Du Fiona Ye Daisy Dai Jason Sun Goldman Sachs (China) Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Securities…