China Property Weekly Wrap Week 38 Wrap sequentially stronger volume growth echoing seasonality, yet moderating leading in

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 8:32AM CST

Week 38 Wrap - sequentially stronger volume growth echoing seasonality, yet moderating leading indicators

Key highlights for the week: also note price appreciation expectations softened for Yi Wang, CFA | Policy update: 1) On Sep 18, MOHURD reaffirmed its both agents and home sellers. Goldman Sachs (China) Securities commitment to implementing the project-company, Company Limited

lead-bank and completed-home sales systems, reiterating Key data points: Shi Xu | that new projects should prioritize completed-home sales n New homes sales volume was +19% wow and -1% yoy, Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited and that presales fund supervision should be strengthened, while new home search activities declined 0.7% wow. consistent with the Aug 28 reform package. 2) Local n Secondary transactions were +28% wow and +23% implementation of broader Housing Provident Fund (HPF) yoy, with price appreciation expectations edging lower withdrawals progressed. Nanjing and Chengdu announced for both agents and home sellers. measures on Sep 20 allowing eligible households to n MTD Sep: Primary GFA sold on median was +4% mom withdraw up to Rmb150k for home renovation and up to and was -16% yoy; secondary GFA sold on median was Rmb5k/Rmb3.6k annually for property management fees, +6% mom and +5% yoy. effective Sep 20/Oct 20, respectively. Wuhan and Tianjin also launched public consultations on similar withdrawal n YTD: Primary GFA sold on average was -11% yoy and expansions on Sep 15. was -17%/-37% vs. the 2024/2023 level; secondary GFA sold on average was +2% yoy and was +15%/+14% Market performance: Primary transaction volumes grew vs. the 2024/2023 level. +19% wow, despite a marginal 0.7% wow drop in new home n Inventory balance was +0.3% wow, with inventory search activity. Secondary transaction volume increased months at 26.4 (vs. average 27.1/27.2 in July/Aug-26). +28% wow, while secondary subscription sales (which lead registration-based sales by 1-2 weeks) and secondary n Valuation: Over week 38, our covered stronger SOE visitation both moderated by 7% and 10% wow, though developers saw share prices +4% wow on average, with secondary new listing supply remained largely flat wow. We Poly (600048.SS, Neutral) and CMSK (001979.SZ,

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Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly Wrap

Neutral) outperforming at +12%/+9% wow; meanwhile, other developers saw share prices on average +10% wow. Our offshore/onshore coverage now trades at an average 41%/13% discount to end-2026E NAV and at 0.4X/0.5X 2026E P/Bs.

Implications: n Property sales in c.75 cities suggest top-100 developers’ contract sales are likely to decline 12% yoy in Sep, vs. -4% in Aug. n Completions: GSPC tracker indicates high-twenties % yoy decline in Sep (vs. -28%/high-teens % yoy decline in Aug by NBS/GSe) n New starts: New starts to record a high-twenties % yoy decline in Sep (vs. -31%/ high-twenties % yoy decline in Aug by NBS/GSe), based on the land sales trends in 300 cities and nationwide cement shipment ratio (+2.4pp wow at 48.1%). n GTV for BEKE (new and existing) is likely +6% yoy (-8%/+11% for new/existing) for July-MTD Sep, vs. internet team’s estimate of +1% yoy (flat/+1%) for 3Q26E.

Primary market Week 38: GFA +19% wow and was -1% yoy, sending YTD to -11% yoy

Exhibit 1: Primary GFA sold last week was +19% wow and -1% yoy in c.75 cities Exhibit 2: Primary GFA sold YTD on average was -11% yoy in c.75 cities, and -17%/-37% vs. 2024/2023 level

(Weekly GFA sold (Indexed to indexed to Jan 2018) 8,000 120 7,000 100 6,000

1,000 20 c.75 cities 0 c.75 cities 0

Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research…