Commodity Monthly Review September 2026

Commodity Monthly Review Monthly Review – September 2026 Head of FIC & Commodity Research Performance overview Dr Mike Haigh The BCOM was broadly unchanged in September (+0.3%), bringing its year-to-date advance to 29.3%. Energy (+9.8%) was the strongest-performing sector, supported by gains in both WTI (+7.6%) Cross Commodity Strategist and Brent (+14.2%). At the other end of the spectrum, softs (-9.4%) posted the largest decline as Jeremy Sellem Cocoa (-20.7%) underwent a sharp correction after its summer rally and Cotton (-15.7%) came under pressure from weaker demand expectations and long liquidation. Grains (-6.5%) also reversed part of August's advance as harvest progress accelerated and geopolitical risk premiums faded, while precious metals (-7.1%) weakened alongside gold and silver. Livestock was broadly unchanged (+0.1%), with gains in cattle offsetting continued weakness in lean hogs. Despite increased divergence across commodity markets, the index remained near its yearly highs thanks to continued strength in the energy complex.

Analysis period: 1 September 2026 to 30 September 2026. Unless otherwise stated, all price returns are calculated based on BCOM Indices.

September sector performance September individual market performance

20% Softs 15% 10% Precious 5% 0% -5% Grains -10% -15% Industrial -20% -25%

Wheat Sugar Gasoil Gasoline Copper Lean Hogs Natural gas Live Cattle Soybean Soybean Oil Aluminium Heating Oil Corn Zinc

Kansas Wheat Gold Cocoa Cotton Coffee Nickel Silver Lead Brent Livestock

YTD sector performance YTD individual market performance

Sugar Wheat Gasoil Gasoline Copper Natural gas Lean Hogs Live Cattle Soybean Aluminium Soybean Oil Heating Oil Corn Zinc WTI

Kansas Wheat Coffee Cotton Lead Cocoa Silver Nickel Brent Grains

Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research/Commodities

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Energy Energy remained the top-performing commodity sector, rising 9.8% in September and up 81.2% YTD. Gains were led by ICE Gasoil and Brent, the two strongest-performing commodities of the month, as European energy markets outperformed US benchmarks amid severe disruptions to Middle Eastern crude and diesel trade flows. Brent climbed from around $92/bbl to above $100/bbl over the month, briefly touching $109/bbl, while WTI also rallied but lagged Brent. Natural gas was the only negative energy commodity during the month. The dominant driver was the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the resulting disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz, which tightened crude and product markets, boosted freight rates, and embedded a significant geopolitical risk premium across the energy complex. A late-month recovery in Gulf exports and the partial restart of Saudi pipeline flows moderated some of the gains but did not alter energy's leadership.

Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex Brent (+14.2%) and WTI (+7.6%). September was dominated by a single theme: the 170 transformation of Strait of Hormuz disruption risk from a geopolitical tail event into a core pricing 165 160 factor. Brent began the month near $92/bbl after two supertankers were struck while exiting 155 150 Hormuz and quickly rallied as US-Iran hostilities intensified. Within days, Brent moved above 145 140 $95/bbl and WTI approached $90/bbl as successive US strikes on Iranian military assets triggered 135 31-Aug 14-Sep 28-Sep retaliatory drone and missile attacks, raising concerns about prolonged disruption to a corridor Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Commodities, carrying 6-8 mb/d of crude by late August. Bloomberg

Physical market stress became increasingly visible. Saudi Arabia rerouted vessels around Africa, tanker availability tightened, freight rates surged, and Brent time spreads widened to multi-year highs, signalling acute prompt scarcity. OPEC+ effectively lost the ability to add meaningful Bloomberg Brent Crude Subindex supply and kept October quotas unchanged after six consecutive monthly increases. 920 Simultaneously, Russia cut its 2026 crude production forecast to 494.2 Mt, equivalent to roughly mb/d, the lowest level since 2009…