Morning Briefing

RATES & FOREX RESEARCH FOR CORPORATES 02 October 2026 MARKET REVIEW – FOREX CHART OF THE DAY MARKET REVIEW - RATES

Morning Briefing OVERNIGHT NEWS ◼ Bunds extend gains on flight-to-quality bid, 2y -5bp to 3.02%, 10y -3bp to 3.47%. Stoxx 600 Europe near 200dma at 624, iTraxx XOver widens to 319, 10y OAT/Bund blows out to 146bp, 10y swap spread widens to 14.4bp. Euro worst performer this week in G10, MXN leads losses in EM. One ECB hike taken off the table, just over two increases priced in by April. ◼ Japan: Tokyo September core CPI accelerates to 2.7% yoy from 1.8%, above 2.3% forecast. Keeps BoJ on tightening track. ◼ South Korea CPI slows to 2.9% yoy in September from 3.1%, in line with forecast. Core eases to 2.8% from3.4%. ◼ Day ahead: US NFP SG f/c 120k, cons: 90k, range 35k-180k, whisper 90k. Fed speaker Logan. ECB’s Moulin, Cipollone, Sleijpen, Vujcic, Nagel, Rehn. Euro area flash September flash CPI. ◼ Nikkei -0.9%, EUR 10y IRS unchanged at 3.62%, Brent crude -1.1% at $101.1/b, Gold +0.6% at $4,188/oz

CALENDAR Key events of the day Chart of the day: NFP SG f/c 120k, close to 2SD surprise required to move US 2s and EUR/USD EUR flash CPI, cons 3.7% yoy, core, cons 2.5% yoy (11:00) ECB speakers: Moulin (09:00), Cipollone (09:30), Rehn (09:30), Sleijpen (10:15), Vujcic (13:30), Nagel (21:35) UK DMP 1y CPI expectations, cons 3.3% yoy (10:30) US NFP, cons 90k, U-rate, cons unch at 4.1%, earnings, cons 0.3% (14:30) US factory orders, cons 0.1% (16:00) Fed speaker: Logan (16:00)

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Corporate

MARKET REVIEW FOREX EUR/USD: 1.1215 – 1.1262 overnight range. Tentative dip buying keeps spot above 1.12 handle after cratering to 16-month low yesterday. Support 1.1170, resistance 1.1335. Option expiries at 1.1175-80 (€870mn), 1.1200-50 (€720mn), (€4.9bn). USD/JPY: overnight range. Yen struggles to participate in safe-haven bid, ignores upside surprise for Tokyo CPI. Proximity to 200dma (158.47) will keep MoF on alert post payrolls. Support 156.30, resistance 159.00. Options 157.00-75 ($4.7bn). GBP/USD: 1.3181 – 1.3219 overnight range. Cable rebounds over 1.32-handle on dip buying at oversold levels. Weekly losses limited to 0.2%, in line with the Swissie. Support 1.3140, resistance 1.3270. EUR/GBP on 2 ½ month low after plummeting to 0.8506. AUD/USD: 0.6910 – 0.6942 overnight range. Spot recovers from 0.6904 low after nearly completing retracement of the 5.5% gain between late June and mid- September. Support 0.6860, resistance 0.7000. Undershoot vs 200dma (0.7030) typically short-lived. RATES EU: 10y IRS recovers to 3.62% after open lower at 3.59%. Widening in swap spread to 14.4bp (highest since April) and sell off in credit signal growing market instability (bonds /inflation). Support 3.43%, resistance 3.74%. Weekly IG issuance totals €20.8bn. US: 10y IRS steady at 4.83% after pulling back form 4.95% high yesterday, swap spread tightens to 41bp on safe-haven demand (tied to Paramount HY supply). Support 4.74%, resistance 4.99%. NFP second-tier vs inflation unless earnings or U-rate increase. UK: 10y IRS retreats to 4.858%, off 21bp from intra-day high of 5.062% yesterday. Support 4.81%, resistance 5.06%. 30y Gilt exceeds 6.0% for the first time since 1998, sparking selling pressure in stocks. FTSE-100 violates 200dma (10455) for first time since Apr-25. More insight from SG Research: Daily news Market alert Special reports

Kenneth Broux Santosh Ejanthkar Tanmay Purohit Juliette Guillaume (

Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document

The week in review 1.Risk aversion takes hold, credit and equities retreat, dollar marches on. New cycle highs for UST bond yields driven by real rates and indigestion of corporate supply (Paramount Skydance $52bn IG/HY transaction) cranked up pressure on risk assets, boosted the dollar and caused a further unravelling of FX carry trades. The outperformance of debt in Germany and the Netherlands stood out as risk aversion took hold across iTraxx credit and Euro Stoxx equity indices. 10y Bunds (-19bp) and Dutch DSL (-16bp) diverged markedly from Treasuries (-1bp), OATs (+5bp) and Gilts (-10bp). Are investors reducing exposure to higher deficit…