Morning Briefing

RATES & FOREX RESEARCH FOR CORPORATES 08 October 2026 MARKET REVIEW – FOREX CHART OF THE DAY MARKET REVIEW - RATES

Morning Briefing OVERNIGHT NEWS ◼ Brent and nat gas +2.5%, hurricane Isaias forces US oil shutdown, President Trump weighing Iran strikes before mid-terms. Japanese investors sold foreign bonds for third straight week, amount slows to Y347bn. 10y UST off 5.36% high after strong auction, stop-through 1.8bp, non-dealer bid 97.5%, b/c 2.77x, indirects 80.3. Major FX quiet, iTraxx Main and XOver open wider. ◼ FOMC minutes reaffirm hawkish tilt: most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end. Several members see current rates only mildly restrictive. SG Economics maintain call for hikes in December and March. ◼ Day ahead: US weekly jobless claims, 30y UST auction (tap). Fed speakers Waller, Kashkari, Musalem. ECB’s Zigman, Lane. ECB accounts. BoE’s Greene, Pill, Bailey, and Lombardelli. Romania CB f/c on hold at 6.50%. Mexico and Chile CPI. ◼ Nikkei -1.1%, EUR 10y IRS +1.5bp at 3.599%, Brent crude +2.5% at $103/b, Gold +0.1% at $4,115/oz.

CALENDAR Key events of the day Chart of the day: Brent Dec-26: break out? SNB speaker: Martin (10:05) ECB speakers: Zigman (10:40), Lane (12:00), Stournaras (12:30) ECB accounts of September meeting (13:30) BoE speakers: Greene (11:15), Pill (12:30), Bailey (14:15), Lombardelli (15:00) US initial jobless claims, cons 200k (14:30) US sells $22bn 30y bonds (19:00) Fed speakers: Waller (10:30), Kashkari (16:40), Musalem (19:40) CL CPI, cons 4.2% yoy (13:00) MX CPI, cons 3.46% yoy, core, cons 3.78% yoy (14:00) RO central bank rate decision, cons unch at 6.50% (tbc)

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Corporate

MARKET REVIEW FOREX EUR/USD: overnight range. Euro consolidates around 1.1200 after FOMC minutes, focus on oil and OATs. Support 1.1160, resistance 1.1265. Option expiries 1.1150 (€1bn), 1.1165-90 (€1bn), 1.1200-25 (€1.6bn), 1.1270-95 (€2.4bn), 1.1300 (€5.7bn). USD/JPY: overnight range. Spot remains stalled below 200dma at (158.53). BoJ dove Kyodo (September dissenter) backs idea of raising rates in several stages. Support 156.35, resistance 159. Option expiries 158.00-10 ($1.6bn), 158.35-75 ($2.2bn). GBP/USD: overnight range. Cable digs in at 1.32 a range trade continues. MPC speakers incl Governor Bailey in focus for inflation/rate comments. Support 1.3140, resistance 1.3275. No major option expiries. EUR/GBP settles above 0.8450. AUD/USD: overnight range. Spot erases gains of Monday and Tuesday, industrial metals probe 200dma support (175). Support 0.6900, resistance 0.7000. Dip buying lifts EUR/AUD back over 1.61, support 1.6078, the Dec-24 low is 1.5968. RATES EU: 10y IRS backs up to 3.60% on oil, +10bp from last Friday’s low. Support 3.48%, resistance 3.70%. Seven issuers sold combined €3.3bn IG debt yesterday. World Bank 30y sustainable in pipe. WTD tally of €12bn below primary dealer forecast of €25bn-€30bn. US: 10y IRS up 4bp at 4.93% in Asia tracking rally in WTI above $90/b. Support 4.82%, resistance 4.99%. NY Fed survey: one-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% to 3.9% in Sept, highest since May 2023. Does strong 10y auction bode well for 30y? UK: 10y IRS skips above 5.0% at open, on track for new higher daily close. Support 4.85%, resistance 5.13%. 5s/30s IRS widens to 52bp, +20bp since 28 September as 30y Gilt yields scale 6.0%. BoE’s Bailey, Pill, Greene and Lombardelli on agenda today. More insight from SG Research: Daily news Market alert Special reports

Kenneth Broux Santosh Ejanthkar Tanmay Purohit Juliette Guillaume (

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