ConocoPhillips (COP) First Take Strong EPS and Production

Equity Research 6 August 2026 | 9:32AM EDT

ConocoPhillips (COP): First Take: Strong EPS and Production; Announces Incoming President and CEO

ConocoPhillips (COP, Buy) reported 2Q26 adjusted EPS of $3.24, above GS and Neil Mehta | FactSet consensus estimates of $2.92/$2.90, respectively. Production volumes were Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

above our estimates, with total production at ~2,248 MBOE/d vs GS at ~2,200 Lydia Gould | MBOE/d and FactSet consensus at ~2,211 MBOE/d. We note the company Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

distributed ~$3.0 bn to shareholders during the quarter, including ~$2.0 bn in Josiah Knight | buybacks and ~$1.0 bn through the ordinary dividend. Management leaves all Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC full-year guidance unchanged. In 3Q26, management guides to production of ~2,290-2,320 MBOE/d. Notably, the company announces a leadership transition plan effective September 1st 2026, with current CFO and EVP, Mr. Andy O’Brien, succeeding Mr. Ryan Lance as President and CEO. Ms. Konnie Haynes-Welsh, current VP, Finance and Controller, will assume the role of SVP and CFO. We anticipate the earnings call to focus on (a) management transition, (b) Lower 48 production, (c) Alaska operations, (d) Middle East disruptions, (e) commodity price realizations, and (f) major LNG projects. Please see within for further details.

Analysis Key variance drivers. COP reported cash flow of ~$7.2 bn, excluding working capital, above the GS estimate of ~$6.6 bn. 2Q26 adjusted EPS came in at $3.24 versus our expectation of $2.92, driven by both stronger U.S. and International earnings vs. the GS model.

Production. COP’s production of ~2,248 MBOE/d was above the GS estimate of ~2,200 MBOE/d. Production in the Lower 48 averaged ~1,479 MBOE/d. Specifically, ~720 MBOE/d came from the Delaware, ~202 MBOE/d came from the Midland, ~363 MBOE/d came from the Eagle Ford, and ~189 MBOE/d came from the Bakken.

Please see Exhibits 2 and 3 for a detailed production variance on the quarter.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs ConocoPhillips (COP)

Exhibit 1: COP reported 2Q26 EPS above the GS estimate, Exhibit 2: COP variance analysis - total production, with production also above during the quarter MBOE/d $ mn, per share data $ Segment Earnings & Production Total Production (MBOED)

Variance Variance GS Consensus Actual Actual vs. GS GS Actual Actual vs. GS E&P: U.S. U.S. 2,824 NA 3,106 282 Alaska 196 185 (11) International 945 NA 1,113 168 Lower 48 1,468 1,477 10 Worldwide $3,769 NA $4,219 $450 Subtotal 1,663 1,664 0 International Corporate (225) NA (268) (43) North Sea: Preferred dividends 0 NA 0 0 Norway 113 108 (5) Net adj. income to common $3,544 NA $3,951 $407 United Kingdom 0 0 0 Special items 0 NA (20) (20) Sub-total 113 108 (5) Net income to common (reported) $3,544 NA $3,931 $387 Asia Pacific/Middle East/Middle East: China 32 36 4 Earnings/share: Indonesia 0 0 0 Adjusted $2.92 $2.90 $3.24 $0.33 Vietnam 0 0 0 Reported $2.92 NA $3.23 $0.31 Australia/Timor-Leste/Malaysia 31 35 4 Sub-total 63 71 8 Avg. shares outstanding (millions) 1,215 NA 1,214 (1) Canada 161 152 (10) Adj. cash flow from operations 6,633 -- 7,176 543 Africa 97 106 9 2Q production ex Libya(MBOE/d) 2,102 -- 2,181 79 Other areas 0 0 0 2Q production (MBOE/d) 2,200 2,211 2,248 49 Equity affiliates 0 0 0 Canada 0 0 0 Asia Pacific/Middle East/Middle East 96 146 50 Russia, Other, and Venezuela (pre-2008) 7 1 (6) Sub-total 103 147 44 Subtotal 536 583 47 Worldwide including Libya 2,200 2,246 47 Worldwide excluding Libya 2,102 2,140 38

Source: Company data, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: COP variance analysis…