Dispersion of returns in private markets 2026

Moonfare Research September 2026

Dispersion in private markets: Manager selection unlocks the premium

Our research shows that outperformance in private

markets still persists, while the spread between best

managers and the rest keeps growing.

Mike O’Sullivan, Chief Economist

Philip Meschke, Head of PE Investment

Harvey Dyer, Investment Analyst

The best and worst The spread between top and bottom-quartile private market managers far exceeds anything seen in public

managers are worlds apart. markets. Industry studies find a 19.2% interquartile return gap in PE, versus just 2.9% in large-cap equities.

The return gap compounds In long-duration assets, differences in annual performance compound. Our analysis suggests top-quartile funds can

with every vintage. return roughly twice the capital of median funds over a ten- year hold.

Manager selection is Dispersion in private markets only matters if performance carries forward. Top-quartile funds remained top quartile 34%

more than guesswork. of the time, confirming performance is not purely random.

The best funds are closed Identifying top managers is only half the challenge. The best funds are structurally oversubscribed, meaning the ability to

to most investors. secure allocations is itself an advantage that analysis alone cannot provide.

Note: Past performance does not indicate future outcomes. 02