Euro Area Data Update Soft Preliminary Retail Sales in Germany in June

Economics Research 3 August 2026 | 10:47AM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Soft Preliminary Retail Sales in Germany in June

BOTTOM LINE: Our past-quarter tracking estimates are broadly unchanged despite Giovanni Pierdomenico | a soft German retail sales reading for June. Goldman Sachs International

n Real retail sales declined by -1.1%mom in the preliminary report for June (vs. +1.2% in May, revised up from +1.1%). This reflected a -1.4% drop in real food sales and a fairly broad-based decline in nonfood sales. Real sales at gas stations rose by 2.1% (vs. +5.0% in May) and currently stand less than 1% below the February levels, partly reflecting the fuel discount in effect through May and June. The level of retail sales was generally revised up slightly over 2026 H1. We would also note that retail sales have generally been revised up between the preliminary and final print in recent months. n Real autos sales rose by 2.0%mom in May after having declined by -1.6% in April (revised up from -3.5%). n The manufacturing output PMI was unrevised in the final reading for July at 54.7, while new orders were revised slightly up and employment and output prices slightly down.

On net, today’s German hard data was slightly softer than our previous assumptions but, given net upward revisions to prior months, the past-quarter GDP growth estimate was essentially unchanged and stands close to the official flash estimate.

2. In France, the manufacturing output PMI was revised down by 0.3pt to 48.5 in the final reading for July (vs. 49.1 in June). New orders and employment were also revised down slightly. Output prices were revised up slightly to 58.6 (vs. 58.8 in June).

3. In Italy, the manufacturing output PMI was reported at 52.3 for July (vs. 52.8 in June). New orders and employment also softened sequentially and the headline manufacturing index thus stood at 51.3 (vs. 52.2 in June). Output prices declined by 2.9pt to 57.7.

4. In Spain, the manufacturing output PMI was reported at 49.1 for July (vs. 49.3 in June). New orders improved from very soft levels and employment was broadly unchanged. The headline manufacturing index ticked up to 50.2 (vs. 49.7 in June). Output prices declined to 53.5 from 60.9 in June.

4. Elsewhere, retail sales rose in both Portugal (+1.7%mom) and the Netherlands (+0.4%) in June.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

5. Turning to area-wide indicators, the manufacturing output PMI was revised down by 0.1pt to 52.9 in the final reading for July (vs. 51.7 in June). New orders and employment were also revised down slightly. The headline manufacturing index was thus revised down by 0.1pt to 51.9 (vs. 51.4 in June). Output prices were essentially unrevised at 57.3 (vs. 60.6 in June).

Exhibit 1: A Firm GDP Print in Q2

After the flash release, we continue our past-quarter tracking estimate by considering realized growth in non-EMU4 economies and continuing to rely on our model estimate for EMU4 economies.

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: Soft June Retail Trade Data in Germany, with Upward Revisions to Previous Months

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Destatis