Euro Area Data Update Softer Italian Construction and Services Data in July

Economics Research 18 September 2026 | 11:53AM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Softer Italian Construction and Services Data in July

BOTTOM LINE: At the area-wide level, our tracking estimate was unchanged at Giovanni Pierdomenico | +0.20%qoq. We currently track Q3 GDP growth at +0.04% in Germany, +0.07% in Goldman Sachs International France, +0.11% in Italy, and +0.59% in Spain.

1. In Germany, real hospitality sales rose by +1.5%mom in July (vs. -1.3% in June), although they remain around 4% down from a year ago. Today’s release resulted in an uptick of our GDP tracking on an unrounded basis (+0.02pp to +0.04%qoq).

2. In Italy, the services trade balance dropped meaningfully in July, reflecting a -6.2%mom decline in services exports partly driven by travel exports. Production in construction declined by -1.4%mom in July. On net, today’s data resulted in a moderation of our GDP tracking to 0.11%qoq (vs. +0.19% previously).

3. Elsewhere, Irish trade data for July was firmer than our prior assumptions, the Dutch unemployment rate was flat in August, and the Portuguese coincident indicator of activity ticked up further in August. On net, our non-EMU4 nowcast ticked up slightly.

4. Turning to area-wide indicators, production in construction was flat and the services trade balance softened in July. The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for August pointed to a 0.1pp uptick in one-year-ahead inflation expectations to +3.0% (vs. 2.5% in February). Expectations ticked up also at the longer 3- and 5-year-ahead horizons.

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Exhibit 1: Area-Wide Tracking Estimate At +0.20%qoq

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: Fading Italian Outperformance in Construction

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, ISTAT, Eurostat