Goldman Sachs SELL

Euro Area Data Update Strong Registered Employment Growth in Spain

Aug 4, 20267 pages页

From the report报告摘录Spain Employment Proxy Overstated: Immigrant regularization, not genuine labor momentum, drives social security affiliation growth (+0.4%mo), masking underlying weakness.

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

Economics Research 4 August 2026 | 1:04PM BST

Euro Area Data Update: Strong Registered Employment Growth in Spain

BOTTOM LINE: Our past-quarter tracking estimates are broadly unchanged. Giovanni Pierdomenico | MAIN POINTS: Goldman Sachs International

1. In France, new passenger car registrations remained firm in July.

2. In Italy, real retail sales (incl. sales at gas stations) rose by +0.2%mom in June (vs. -0.3% in May). This reflected a 1.4%mom rise in real fuel sales and a +0.1%mom rise in non-fuel sales. In line with what was observed in Iberia, growth in foreign tourism inflows slowed down in June, suggesting a somewhat soft start to the holiday season amid high uncertainty and later-than-usual bookings. Today’s data were broadly in line with our previous assumptions, leaving our past-quarter tracking estimate unchanged.

3. In Spain, social security affiliations – a timely proxy for employment – rose by +0.4%mom in July (vs. +0.4% in June). Social security affiliations are up +4.3% on a three-month annualised basis In July. While the underlying growth momentum is very firm in Spain, we think the pace of growth in social security affiliations likely overstates it, as it reflects the process of regularization of existing immigrants that are entering formal employment records despite having already formed part of the labour market before.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Exhibit 1: A Firm GDP Print in Q2

After the flash release, we continue our past-quarter tracking estimate by considering realized growth in non-EMU4 economies and continuing to rely on our model estimate for EMU4 economies.

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

Exhibit 2: Mixed But Net Resilient Spending Data in June

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat

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