Europe Paper & Forest Products US Paper Update Containerboard Up $70 t

Equity Research 21 September 2026 | 12:50PM BST

Europe Paper & Forest Products: US Paper Update: Containerboard Up $70/t; Boxboard Up $60/t in September

As per RISI’s recent release on Friday (September 18), US containerboard and Gabriel Simoes | boxboard prices increased m/m in September. This is particularly relevant for the US Goldman Sachs International Containerboard producers, as there have been investor concerns in recent weeks Marcus von Scheele that the announced price increases could fail to come through. We will continue to | track the demand fundamentals for this market, but if demand remains strong, we Goldman Sachs International

wouldn’t rule out that an additional portion of the announced hikes is implemented Thomas Ward | in the coming months. Goldman Sachs International Containerboard: Price hikes partly implemented. US containerboard prices rose in Meghna Ghosh | September as mills implemented $70/st increases for Kraftliner and Testliner, Goldman Sachs India SPL marking the third hike of 2026, culminating in an increase of $170/st YTD. Investors we recently spoke with had been expecting a $40-50/st increase, while concerns over whether any price increase would be implemented had been growing following articles suggesting some resistance from independent box makers to the recent hikes announced (here). We have been more constructive than investors (here), given the still strong comments on demand and tight supply. We believe the current price increase should be well-received by investors and should reassure on the strength of the US Containerboard market (especially given the weak performance of the US packaging stocks in the past weeks).

Boxboard pricing increased. URB was the only grade to achieve a price increase, rising $60/st m/m as mills remained fully booked through October, limiting availability for new orders, with tight supply and reports of higher transaction prices from both buyers and sellers supporting the increase. In contrast, announced price increases for CRB ($50/st) and CUK ($60/st) were not implemented - but we believe this could be a timing issue with the data collection (as happened earlier this year). The data for October should provide us with a clearer picture on the price increases.

We highlight SW as the name under our coverage with the highest exposure to North America (c.60% of EBITDA), and we estimate containerboard/box sales represent c.70% of the company’s earnings in the region. We maintain our Buy rating on SW and our relative preference for downstream names under our coverage, which offer a compelling bottom-up story vs. the upstream names that are more exposed to pulp prices. We expect a positive market reaction to SW shares on the back of the price increase, especially considering the stock’s recent underperformance.

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Goldman Sachs Europe Paper & Forest Products

US Containerboard Containerboard prices increased m/m in September. As expected, price increases announced by most of the main mills were implemented, with Kraftliner and Testliner prices increasing by $70/st, marking the third rise of the year, $170 higher than the price at the start of 2026. Mill backlogs remained unchanged at 5-6 weeks in September - implying the market remains strong.

RISI reports that while containerboard supply was described as tight by buyers and sellers, there was some resistance to the overall price increase this month in the US. Some buyers reported either delaying or holding off on paying or charging the increase this month.

Exhibit 1: Higher US Containerboard Prices were observed in September

US Containerboard Prices ($/st)

Kraftliner - US East Testliner - US East

600…