European September Flash PMI Preview

Economics Research 18 September 2026 | 5:50PM BST

European September Flash PMI Preview

BOTTOM LINE: We expect the upcoming Euro area flash composite PMI (released on Giovanni Pierdomenico | Wednesday, September 23) to tick down by 0.3pt to 51.7. Across components, we Goldman Sachs International look for a slight tickdown in services on the back of a further moderation in consumer sentiment in early September and an unchanged reading in manufacturing as a moderation in Germany is offset by a pick-up in the periphery. In the UK, we expect the UK composite PMI to tick down by 0.3pt to 52.2, reflecting softer consumer high-frequency data and an essentially unchanged reading for the manufacturing output index.

September Flash PMIs: GS vs. Bloomberg Consensus

Date Time (UK) Country Event Period GS Consensus Last Units

Wed 23/09 08:15 FR PMI - Composite Sep P Index Wed 23/09 08:15 FR PMI - Manufacturing Sep P Index Wed 23/09 08:15 FR PMI - Services Sep P Index Wed 23/09 08:30 DE PMI - Composite Sep P Index Wed 23/09 08:30 DE PMI - Manufacturing Sep P Index Wed 23/09 08:30 DE PMI - Services Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:00 EA PMI - Composite Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:00 EA PMI - Manufacturing Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:00 EA PMI - Services Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:30 UK PMI - Composite Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:30 UK PMI - Manufacturing Sep P Index Wed 23/09 09:30 UK PMI - Services Sep P Index

Consensus forecasts shown are as at the time of writing this preview.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

European September Flash PMI Preview

Euro area PMIs moved sideways at 52.0 in August, broadly the same level observed in February.

Since the end of the collection window for the August survey, however, energy prices have risen further and high-frequency consumer confidence—which has been highly correlated to services PMIs recently—declined further, especially in Germany and France (Exhibit 1).

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Exhibit 1: Commodity Prices Rose and Consumer Sentiment Declined

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eurostat, Morning Consult

On the more positive side, early surveys have remained broadly stable, with a slight further uptick in sentix sentiment but softer ZEW expectations (which are surveyed later in the month, Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Mixed Survey Evidence So Far

Source: sentix, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, ZEW

On net, we nudge down the predictions of our model and expect the area-wide composite to tick down by 0.3pt to 51.7 in August, a touch above consensus expectations.

We continue to be focused on the price-related components of the survey as possible indicators of the strength and persistence of indirect effects. Commentary in the early-September survey by the Banque de France suggests that price pressures moderated in August and were broadly stable in September, although the rise in energy prices since the end of the BdF’s collection window (September 3) implies some upside to price components in the PMI survey.