Genting Singapore Ltd. (GENS.SI) Improving inbound travel trend in 3Q26td. Updating estimates

Equity Research 18 September 2026 | 9:01PM HKT

Genting Singapore Ltd. (GENS.SI) Improving inbound travel trend in 3Q26td. Updating estimates

GENS.SI 12m Price Target: S$0.70 Price: S$0.62 Upside: 13.8% NEUTRAL Alpha Wang | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Simon Cheung, CFA | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

We revise FY26-28E EBITDA estimates of GENS by +11-15% post Zhaoheng Chen | better-than-expected 2Q26 results, and keep our 12-month Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

SOTP-based target price unchanged at S$0.7. While the market is pleased to see (1) signs of GGR market share recovery in 2Q26 (27% Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: S$7.4bn / $5.8bn vs. 24% in 1Q26) particularly in the VIP rolling segment (36% share Enterprise value: S$4.7bn / $3.7bn vs. 20% in 1Q26); and (2) sharp EBITDA margin recovery in 2Q26 3m ADTV: S$19.7mn / $15.4mn Singapore (35.4% vs. 29.5% in 1Q26) mainly driven by sequentially less bad Asia Leisure M&A Rank: 3 debt provision, sustainability is key and we will monitor the situation Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No closely. Meanwhile, heading into peak capex cycle in FY27-28E GS Forecast __________________________________ (S$1-1.2bn expansionary capex per annum), we see rising concerns 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Revenue (S$ mn) New 2,452.1 2,480.8 2,634.8 2,759.0 on potential financing needs and dividend sustainability (S$0.04 Revenue (S$ mn) Old 2,452.1 2,460.7 2,614.7 2,735.7

each year), despite a still solid net cash position of S$2.9bn at EBITDA (S$ mn) EPS (S$) New end-1H26 (-8% hoh). At the current price, the stock’s valuation EPS (S$) Old P/E (X) looks undemanding trading at 7x FY26E EV/post-tax EBITDA and P/B (X) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 offering 6.5% dividend yield (vs. mid-cycle of 10x and 3.2%). Retain Dividend yield (%) 5.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 CROCI (%) 8.2 6.4 6.5 6.2 Neutral. 3/26 6/26 9/26E 12/26E Looking into 3Q26, we note that Singapore’s inbound travel EPS (S$)

trend has been improving qtd, with total inbound visitors GS Factor Profile ______________________________ -3%/flat yoy in Jul/Aug respectively (vs. -7% in 2Q26), led by Growth

recovery from China (+4%/9% in Jul/Aug), Australia (flat/+2%) Financial Returns

and Japan (+2%/flat) (Exhibit 1). That said, we are mindful of Multiple potential downside risks from the resurgence of oil price hikes recently. For 2H26E, we are currently assuming (1) +3% industry Integrated

GGR growth (vs. -2% in 2Q26); (2) steady 27% GGR market share by Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

GENS, before recovering further to 28% in FY27E; and (3) slight GENS.SI relative to Asia ex. Japan Coverage improvement of EBITDA margin to 34.3% (vs. 33.5% in 1H26). Net GENS.SI relative to Asia Leisure

net, we are forecasting S$440mn EBITDA for RWS in 2H26E, +7% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. yoy (vs. -25%/+6% in 1Q/2Q26 respectively), adding up to See disclosures for details. S$839mn for the full year (-2% yoy).

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Goldman Sachs Genting Singapore Ltd. (GENS.SI)

Genting Singapore Ltd. (GENS.SI) Income Statement (S$ mn) __________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Apr 3, 2019 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total revenue 2,452.1 2,480.8 2,634.8 2,759.0 Cost of goods sold (1,787.6) (1,842.9) (1,928.4) (2,028.0) SG&A ( ) Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ R&D -- -- -- -- 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Other operating inc./(exp.) (3.4) (3.4) (3.5) (3.6) P/E (X) EBITDA P/B (X) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 Depreciation & amortization ( ) FCF yield (%) 2.4 (1.1) (7.1) (7.0) EBIT EV/EBITDAR (X) 7.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 Net interest inc./(exp.) EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 7.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 Income/(loss) from associates 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6…