Global Economics Analyst Assessing the Current Pace of AI Investment

Economics Research 2 August 2026 | 1:03PM EDT

Assessing the Current Pace of AI Investment

n AI investment is a key focus of macro markets, but measuring it is not entirely Joseph Briggs | straightforward. The most frequently cited measure is the projection for almost Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC $800bn in 2026 capex from US hyperscalers. However, this estimate ignores Sarah Dong investment by private and foreign companies and captures non-US and non-AI | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC investment. n To address these measurement issues, we adjust hyperscaler capex projections to exclude pre-AI investment trends, augment these data with capex estimates for foreign and private AI-exposed companies, and allocate investment globally based on the location of announced hyperscaler investments. After these adjustments, we estimate that 2026 AI investment is set to total $1019bn globally and $581bn in the US. n We crosscheck our estimate with two other approaches. First, gross profit forecast revisions for public companies exposed to the buildout imply $1060bn in global AI investment in 2026. Second, we estimate a current investment pace of $1002bn globally and $545bn in the US based on official national account and trade data. Taken together, these estimates point to AI-investment totals of $1tn globally and just under $600bn in the US in 2026. n The AI capex growth outlook, including how high AI investment rises as a share of GDP and when capex growth slows, is a key source of uncertainty for macro markets right now. Extrapolating our 2026 estimates based on analyst forecasts for public company capex suggests that AI capex will rise from 1.8% of GDP in the US (0.9% globally) in 2026 to 2.5% of GDP in the US (1.3% globally) in 2027, with a further increase to 2.8% (1.4% globally) in 2028. These levels are consistent with those in prior general-purpose technology (GPT) buildouts. n A dashboard approach will probably be most useful in assessing when AI capex growth will slow. Leading indicators still point to a robust growth outlook, although a nowcast based on trade data points to a moderate slowdown in investment (albeit from a very robust pace) in June and July. Official US data imply that recent increases in AI investment have increasingly been driven by cost inflation, suggesting that spending increases in 2026 may provide a smaller boost to real investment than in 2025 (we still see the boost to the level of US GDP as limited due to measurement biases and high imported content of AI hardware).

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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst

Assessing the Current Pace of AI Investment

Global and US AI investment is a key focus of macro markets, but measuring it is not straightforward. The most frequently cited measure for US investment in 2026 is the approximately $800bn in capex by US hyperscalers (consensus forecasts as of July 30th; Exhibit 1). While easy to measure, this estimate has several well-known drawbacks.

First, it ignores investment by private US companies that play a pivotal role in the AI ecosystem (this view is reflected in private company valuations), as well as capex from other public US companies that play smaller but still important roles in the AI infrastructure buildout (our credit team recently highlighted that hyperscalers have directly accounted for only 40% of AI-related supply in 2026). Second, it ignores investment from non-US companies, particularly those in China and Asia more broadly. Third, hyperscaler investment totaled over $150bn even prior to the AI boom, suggesting that some current capex is unrelated to AI. Fourth, US hyperscalers operate globally, so some share of investment is realized outside the US.

Exhibit 1: Hyperscalers Are Set to Spend just under $800bn on Capex in 2026 According to Current Consensus Forecasts

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

In this Global Economics Analyst, we combine different data sources to assess the pace of US and global AI investment in 2026.

An Augmented Measure of…