Global Metals & Mining Channel Checking Iron Ore Traders

Equity Research 6 August 2026 | 5:31AM BRT

Global Metals & Mining: Channel Checking Iron Ore Traders

A series of conversations with iron ore traders suggest a cautious outlook for prices Marcio Farid | in the near-term. With demand being stable to weak, supply being resilient and steel Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. margins under pressure, most of our contacts expect prices to remain under Emerson Vieira pressure in the short-term (and eventually test the low $90’s). | Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Seasonal demand pick up: is expected to be immaterial, based on our Henrique Marques conversations, as property related demand (the key reason for season demand | pick-up) remain subdued and as Simandou ramp-up is likely to be more material into Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. 4Q26-1Q27 (as tertiary crushing likely becomes available in Guinea).

Supply to be relatively resilient in the short-term as some high cost producers have hedged their exposure at around $100/t.

Downside is expected to be limited mostly due to elevated cost curve/freight rates (Brazil-China at $36/t vs. $25/t avg in 1Q). Most of our contacts also point to reduced iron ore price volatility on the back of China Minerals Resource Group’s evolving participation on price formation.

Key upside risk would be related to CMRG potentially restricting cargoes from major iron ore producers (like was the case for BHP earlier in the year, link). A potential end to the Middle East conflict could also revive the steel export market in support of iron ore demand in China. And lastly, a pick up in steel profitability would also be supportive to iron ore prices (e.g., if anti involution policy becomes more effective, not GS base case for now).

Recent news around trading partners reviewing their exposure to physical trader Radiant (link, link, link, link, link) is expected by our contacts to have relatively low impact in the short-term, but could restrict buying support as prices potentially approach cyclical lows.

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Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining

Exhibit 1: Iron ore ports pricing and inventory – China Exhibit 2: FMG branded fines stockpile Mt

China iron ore ports Inventory (mnt) IO price(US$/t) 35 Mt

0 Jan-20 Apr-20 80 0 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Oct-26 Jan-27 Dec-25 Mar-26 Others Brazil Australia Iron ore QD 62% SSF FBF WPF WF KF

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Mysteel, Steelhome, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: BHP & RIO inventories Exhibit 4: Unit cash margin (estimated) - China Mt

35 Mt Cash margin (Rmb/t) (200) 30 600

(600) 20 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rebar-2025 HRC-2025 CRC-2025 EAF-202 15 0 Rebar-2024 HRC-2024 CRC-2024 EAF- ) Sep-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Aug-17 Jun-18 Sep-17 Sep-18 Oct-17 Dec-18 Nov-17 Mar-19 Dec-17 Jun-19 Jan-18 Sep-19 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-19 Mar-20 Apr-18 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May-18 Jun-20 Sep-20 Jun-18 Jul-18 Dec-20 Mar-21 Aug-18 Jun-21 Sep-18 Sep-21 Oct-18 Dec-21 Nov-18 Mar-22 Dec-18 Jun-22 Jan-19 Sep-22 Feb-19 Mar-19 Dec-22 Mar-23 Apr-19 Jun-23 May-19 Sep-23 Jun-19 Dec-23 Jul-19 Mar-24 Rebar-2026 Rebar-2025 HRC-2026 HRC-2025 Aug-19 Jun-24 Sep-19 Sep-24 Oct-19 Dec-24 Nov-19 Mar-25 Dec-19 Jun-25 Jan-20 Sep-25 Feb-20 Dec-25…