GS Abbas GS US Daily Download

GS Abbas - GS US Daily Download 18 Sep 2026 Ismail Abbas · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Fri 18 Sep 2026, 2:20am ET

Stat of the Day Coming into today, we estimate CTAs are long $37.54bn of US equities (22nd percentile on 1y lookback). Current flow estimates are dram

Coming into today, we estimate CTAs are long $37.54bn of US equities (22nd percentile on 1y lookback). Current flow estimates are dramatic, especially given overall exposure, but we anticipate today's move will moderate some of these flows. Over the next month we have CTAs as sellers of $5.4bn SPX in a flat tape versus SELLERS of $54bn in a down tape and BUYERS of $17bn in an up tape. (h/t Gail Hafif)

eCommerce is a $4.5tn+ Global Opportunity

AI Capex (Credit) - We refresh the gross hyperscaler issuance implied by our forecasts. We now expect $420 billion of gross debt issuance in 2027, which reflects some modest upward revisions in CapEx forecasts. This forecast would represent more than a 60% increase vs. our full-year 2026 estimate of $250 billion of direct global hyperscaler IG debt issuance. So far this year, $229 billion has been issued across a range of currencies. We continue to expect 65% to 75% of the 2027 hyperscaler gross debt issuance to price in the USD IG bond market, subject to market conditions and investor receptivity in light of issuer concentration considerations. So far this year, we have tracked $578 billion of global, gross AI-related debt issuance, which includes a broad universe of firms. Hyperscalers continue to represent ‘just’ 40% of overall AI-related debt issuance, underscoring the wide range of AI-related exposure in the global credit markets. The share of AI-related notional across the IG and HY corporate credit indices has been increasing. The largest exposure is in the USD IG market, at 12% of total notional, followed by USD HY at 6%. In the EUR market, the figures are more contained at 3% for IG and 1% for HY. We see meaningful scope for this to grow as the multi-year issuance cycle extends.

Actionable GS Research Overnight

Amer Sports Investor Day - We attended the Amer Sports Investor Day in Annecy, France on September 17th. At the event, AS updated its long-term financial targets and outlined a path for Salomon to grow at a mid-teens CAGR (to >$5bn). Management expects broad-based growth at the Salomon brand across geographies, channels, and product categories, but management sees particular opportunity in running, sportstyle, head to toe apparel, and DTC growth as key accelerators. This is supported by an expansion of the company's key epicenter strategy to new cities globally. Regarding near-term trends, management also raised its F3Q guidance for sales and operating profit margins and also clarified that the base from which EBIT margins will grow (FY26) is the ex-tariff base of 13.8-14.1%.

INNIO - On 9/17, INIO announced it has secured a 450 MW order from a US EaaS provider for its Texas data center facility, utilizing INIO's containerized gas engines. The order has been booked in 3Q26, and management expects it to be delivered in 2028. Overall, we came away encouraged by the pricing momentum, with the order fully containerized and priced north of $1,000/kW, consistent with the containerized pricing framework management laid out in August. We are also buoyed by the customer base broadening, and the capacity roadmap being on track. We remain Buy rated on INIO and maintain our 12-month PT of $40.

Autodesk - We reiterate our Neutral rating on Autodesk following AU26 (September 15-16). The event gave us a clearer view of how Autodesk plans to remain central as AI expands across design workflows. The next generation of Autodesk Assistant will connect project context with Autodesk capabilities, outside models, and customer-built tools across products and projects, helping carry work from an initial idea through review and execution. We view this as a credible extension of Autodesk’s platform strategy and a thoughtful response to the broader AI disruption debate, though much of the product vision remains ahead of broad customer deployment.

Equities finished higher with the S&P having its second-best daily performance for the month of…