GS Abbas GS US Daily Download

GS Abbas - GS US Daily Download 21 Sep 2026 Ismail Abbas · Goldman Sachs · Analyst, Global Banking & Markets 21 Sep 2026

HFs net sold global Energy at the fastest pace in 4 months, driven by a roughly equal number of short and long sales.

Retail is buying even if HF net/grosses are at the lows and "sentiment" is at the bottom

Global Rates Outlook - The Fed’s inflation-focused message should reinforce a flattening environment over the near-term. The strong investment and labor market backdrop is likely to keep longer-term yields in a higher range, but it will be difficult to sustain a return to steepening until after the market gains clarity on the extent of rate hikes—which typically only occurs around the time of the last hike. Rallies are likely to be the lower vol outcome for the time being, and we tactically prefer selling vol on longer tenors over duration exposure. The hawkish ECB reaction function to energy price moves offers a degree of protection to belly forwards. We think this flattening dynamic continues in the near-term, with energy still the key uncertainty—we recommend long EUR 1y1y vs CHF. The BoE’s Gilt-friendly QT plans helped bull- flatten the UK curve, but the incremental policy signals point to a November hike. This should keep flattening front-end gaps like M7M8. The message that accompanied the BoJ’s 25bp rate hike fell short of the market’s hawkish expectations; given front-end pricing and the relative richness of 5s on the curve, we favor paying 5y JPY on the 2s5s10s fly.

Actionable GS Research Overnight

MSFT NDR - We hosted investor meetings with Head of IR, Jonathan Neilson; and Director of IR, Danielle Criste; in Stockholm, Zurich and London the week of 9/14. These meetings followed investor meetings and our keynote with CFO Amy Hood in SF the week of 9/7. Our sense is that Microsoft has made several key AI decisions in the last 3 years that are now paying off as enterprises evaluate the importance of platform offerings in AI, including a) front loading long-dated capex – such that the company has greater flexibility today over short-dated capex decisions; b) balancing capex allocations between 1P applications and 3P customers – such that Copilot and MAI have improved in their quality of outputs; c) balancing capex allocations between frontier and enterprise customers – such that all of 4Q’s $51bn RPO increase was from enterprises (not frontier labs), and the company can be less dependent on any one model in the evolution of the model ecosystem. Lastly, Microsoft is leveraging its multi-decade incumbency into making AI work in enterprises, including its reputation for safety and governance (e.g. Agent 365 bundled in E7), the ability to apply models to hill climb in enterprise environments with business specific context, and the ramp of FDEs to support large backlog commits. We are Buy rated (on Conviction List) and believe the key areas of discovery value will center on improvements in MAIA and MAI, and momentum in enterprise platform go to market.

Solar Energy - In the wake of a weaker than anticipated resi recovery over the near-term in conjunction with ongoing macro headwinds (e.g. interest rates), we see a more subdued recovery for resi solar fundamentals into year-end with risk to expectations likely persisting into a typically seasonally-weaker 1Q27 period as well. Within the resi sector, we highlight ENPH (Buy) given its higher margin profile in conjunction with several near-term growth drivers from new product launches, though we do acknowledge the bar appears high heading into 2027. Additionally, we acknowledge the potential valuation headwind from rising interest rates on RUN (Buy), while we maintain a cautious view on SEDG (Sell).

YETI Investor Day - We attended the YETI Investor Day in Austin, Texas, on September 17th, 2026. At the event, management introduced a long-term financial framework through FY30 calling for MSD- HSD% annual sales growth, HSD-LDD% adjusted operating income growth, LDD-high teens% adjusted EPS growth, and $1.2bn-$1.4bn of cumulative FCF. Underpinning this growth is a plan to grow international revenue to >$1bn, scale Bags & Soft Coolers into a $1bn platform, and…