GS Armbrust What Matters Today HF Pain Continues Muse 21Sep2026

GS Armbrust - What Matters Today HF Pain Continues Muse 21 Sep 2026 Nelson Armbrust · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, FICC & Equities Mon 21 Sep 2026, 8:22am ET

This year we have seen a significant divergence of performance from L/S Fundamental HFs versus Systematic HFs… which is getting more pronounced and last week was no different.

Last week: The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell -1.02% last week (vs MSCI World TR +0.35%). Meanwhile, the GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate rose +1.28% during the same period.

On the year: L/S Fundamental +12% YTD, but mostly driven by Asian investors… US funds are +8%. Meanwhile, Systematics are +20% YTD!

As mentioned by my colleague Lee Coppersmith, breadth has become another pretty clear indication of how much harder the tape has been than the headline index suggests. Less than 30% of S&P stocks are now above the 50-day moving average.

And Sentiment has deteriorated alongside it. Our GS Sentiment Indicator - an aggregate measure of US equity positioning - fell to -0.9, its lowest level in over a year.

While The latest AAII survey was similarly negative: bearish sentiment jumped 14pts week-over-week to 53.3%, its highest level since May 2025, while bullish sentiment fell to 28.8% and the bull-bear spread