GS Callahan TMT very quick hits 19 Aug 2026

GS Callahan - TMT (very) quick hits 19 Aug 2026 Callahan · Goldman Sachs · TMT Sector Specialist Wed 19 Aug 2026, 5:19pm ET

S&P +21 bps as the VIX (somehow) closed back near YTD lows (14-handle) .. that said.. it was a tough day across the board as the Yield Curve flattened (2s30s flattened 9 bps today, one of larger 1-day moves in recent history) …. the USD continues to (sharply) weaken vs Gold (back >4.5k & re-testing 200dma) and Cryptos breaking higher .. Oil remains firm (>$90) … Equity moves looked wrong way (Small > Big, Laggards > Leaders, Shorts > Longs, Low Vol > High Vol, et al) – manifesting in our GS TMT Momentum Pair down 9% for a second consecutive session ..

.. sentiment check? .. while the first few weeks of August felt better (even if exhausting) and helped give some investors’ confidence on the long-side of the portfolio exiting a very strong ‘fundamental’ 2Q earnings season (.. even if T+1 price action wasn’t satisfactory – see KEYS & ADI the latest ...), this week has re-introduced a number of Factor and Narrative challenges that again leave investors debating how much ‘torque’ to the AI theme one wants to carry amidst a market that increasingly feels 2-ways as of late (e.g. leaning into avenues of pockets of diversification – ‘Inference economy’ names or live / media names or pockets of Internet … vs ... leaning back into the AI vs the ‘rest’ story down the stretch of ’26) .… next couple weeks shape up to be important on the earnings front – juxtaposition of AI names reporting (CRDO, AVGO, NVDA, DELL) vs. more out-of-favor Software / Services (WDAY, CRM, ADBE, INTU, ADSK). What gives!

Top inbounds today .. why was KEYS -7% on that print?! … earnings set-ups? (CRWD, MDB, SNOW, NVDA) … why such an intense Mo’ move today? .. why PANW & CRWD down 4-5%? …. Anything on UBER +5%? NFLX +3%? .. so, AT&T now up on 6 of 7 wks? anything changed ? .. any sentiment change in Software? (NOW, CRM, WDAY, ADSK, SAP all closed >200-dma) ..

ADI .. while the price momentum in ADI has stalled out (see 50-dma set to move below its 100-dma) – albeit with not much negative to point to (durability of Autos strength? Incremental GMs upside beyond F4Q?) .. amidst a noisy factor backdrop, ADI could be a name to revisit with GIR remaining BUY rated post earnings – noting ‘management believes that overall analog industry revenue can sustain double-digit growth for several years, supported by accelerating datacenter investments and a number of other secular growth drivers. With datacenter capacity expected to reach roughly 100 GW by 2031 and each GW representing a $1.0 - $1.5 bn SAM opportunity, – transition toward 800V architecture and increasing architecture complexity should continue to drive significant analog content growth’ – see GIR full take here.

Healthcare .. Healthcare sector outperformed the market by ~330 bps today, a top 3 day of outperformance dating back to the GFC (2009) – all eyes were on MRNA +175% today (~190mn shares traded or ~50% of its float) with Merck, DHR, VRTX, LLY up 5-12% in sympathy..

Mo’ Watch .. 3-mo Momentum (e.g. recent leaders > laggards) has outperformed 12-mo momentum (e.g. 12-mo leaders > laggards) by ~15pts in two sessions (~10pts yday, another ~5 today) … indicative of the dynamic Factor backdrop we are in and velocity of price action / leadership changes

Cyclicals vs Defensives .. GS CYC vs DEFS pair is now down 6 days in a row and lower on 9 of 10 sessions .. starting to decouple (to the downside) from US ISM New Order trends (red line), which remains near cycle highs..

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities, Bloomberg, as of August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.