GS Crook GS MORNING GCEM Symposium Key Quotes Trump Xi Summit Preview NBH Views Global FX Trader Dollar Drift and Week Ahead

GS Crook - GS MORNING GCEM Symposium Key Quotes Trump/Xi Summit Preview NBH Views Global FX Trader Dollar Drift and Week Ahead 21 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities 21 Sep 2026

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) GCEM Symposium Key Quotes, 2) Trump/Xi Summit Preview, 3) NBH Views, 4) Global FX Trader: Dollar Drift and 5) Week Ahead

1) ADAM CROOK – Connecting you to GS: Thoughts From The Floor – LINK

Some key soundbites from our recent GCEM Virtual Macro Symposium. Full replay, with all sessions available here.

Loretta Mester (Former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) on R + the labour market: The unemployment rate is low, initial claims are very low….It seems like demand and supply are in balance… we really haven't seen labour force growth this low… but that's because of the policies on immigration, and also the demographics of an ageing population… We know that certain areas are worried about AI coming in and taking jobs, but we're really not seeing that happen yet on a broad scale… In the near term the investment is raising demand, so it's another factor pushing prices up… and then AI will probably be a disinflationary force, but that disinflationary force doesn't mean that necessarily interest rates need to be brought back down, because R, the equilibrium rate, is going to be higher, partly because of the investment, but partly because of budget deficits, and the productivity growth that we probably will get from AI…”

Jan Hatzius (Chief Economist & Head of Global Investment Research) on Warsh, Volatility and the Long- End: Chairman Warsh wants to reduce the amount of information about the Fed's reaction function, and that is more controversial… If there's less information about the reaction function of the Fed, I think it's going to imply more volatility. There will be more meetings where we go into the meeting with a move 30% or 50% or 70% priced rather than 0% or 100%... It's definitely a regime change, and it's going to take some getting used to. The additional demand for capital from the hyperscalers and others in the AI complex… adds to the issuance that we're seeing from the government… that's very natural upward pressure on longer term yields and on the term premium… once the build-out of the technology has progressed further, typically investment comes down. ..So I think that will be more hump shaped… On the government side, we're probably going to continue to see large primary deficits and increases in the debt to GDP ratio at the Federal level from about 100% now to 120% over a decade.”

Anshul Sehgal (Co-Head of FICC) on the Long-End: We are less worried about the long end than the market has been… what matters is R being less than G… Take the United States from 2022 to 2026… Each year, the US government fiscally expanded by 6 to 8%, yet debt to GDP only worsened by 2.5%... If you look at Japan in 2022, debt to GDP was 220%. Today it's at 180%... If the nominal economy is going

to grow at 5%+ in the United States, then 5% bond yields are fair game… For people who want to trade long the bond, there are better trades to do… if the long bond rallies, it'll accrue to places like the neoclouds… In terms of running steepeners… we just don't see the point…. Fed policy and fiscal policy are working at cross purposes right now..

James Ellery (Global Co-Head of Currencies & Emerging Markets Trading) on FX Opportunities: If you look at rates vol, the market actually hasn't priced in significantly extra premium. So it's still supportive of the carry trades… The funding side of the trade, in the context of what's happening in Japan, may be the side that's changing. So, should it be funded in JPY, Euro or Swiss, or should you be funded in dollars? … The risk to the trade is if the Fed becomes a bit more orthodox and you start to see not just one hike… a series of hikes would be something that could disrupt that trade. Our favourite trade - Short dollars and long EM, with a linear implementation focused on Turkey, Egypt, HUF in the region, Brazil, Mex, and then Taiwan in Asia… To complement that… a long vol position in the pairs I mentioned, with USDCHF being the favourite”

CHA…