GS Crook GS MORNING NBH Preview US Inflation Path US Equities Update Brandon Brown Views and KRW Update

GS Crook - GS MORNING: 1) NBH Preview, 2) US Inflation Path, 3) US Equities Update, 4) Brandon Brown Views and 5) KRW Update 22 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Tue 22 Sep 2026, 3:53am ET

GS MORNING: 1) NBH Preview, 2) US Inflation Path, 3) US Equities Update, 4) Brandon Brown Views and 5) KRW Update 22 September 2026 | 3:53 AM Eastern Daylight Time

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) NBH Preview, 2) US Inflation Path, 3) US Equities Update, 4) Brandon Brown Views and 5) KRW Update

BOTTOM LINE: After three consecutive 25bp rate cuts, we expect the MNB to hold rates and announce a lower inflation target of 2.5% today (currently 3%, with a 1% band, and the highest in the EU). We are in line with consensus and expect the MNB hold its base rate at +5.50%. The decision will be today, at 1pm BST. We think a dovish surprise would be the target left unchanged, or discussion of imminent resumption of cuts. A hawkish surprise would be target revised to 2%, or a signal that 2% is the eventual end point.

CEEMEA ECON (DALY) Following August’s meeting, Governor Varga stated that the Bank will conduct a "multi-step review" of its inflation target and will publish the results in Autumn. More recently, media reports citing an MNB official suggested the Bank is set to lower the target from 3.0% to 2.5% at the September meeting, while pausing policy easing at this meeting to assess the market reaction to the change in target. Reflecting this guidance, we expect the Bank to temporarily pause its cutting cycle at the upcoming meeting. Looking beyond the short term, we maintain our view that the outlook for Hungarian rates is more dovish than market pricing implies, and that the market has overreacted to potential inflation risks.

FX STRATEGY (ALVES) Three key elements we will be focused on for the MNB meeting. First, the inflation target revision, it's widely expected the target will be lowered from 3% to 2.5%. We think this is HUF positive as growing inflation differentials help explain the long-run trend higher in EUR/HUF. Second, the September Inflation Report and whether the new inflation projections allow for further cuts after this week. In the June report, the MNB saw 2026 inflation at 1.8%. Oil prices have increased since, but June-August inflation was lower than expected. Third, forward guidance, which currently states that the future path of rates will depend on this Inflation Report. Throughout, we will be looking for signals of the MNB’s sensitivity to the Forint and how this may have shifted relative to the summer.

FX TRADING (VASIADIS) After delivering 3 cuts over summer, expect NBH to keep rates unchanged with more cautious stance. They will likely note the increased offshore inflationary risks (higher energy, Russia geopolitical threat). Important to see their inflation forecast where a lower target is expected. In

terms of FX, we continue to like fading the moves above 365 in EURHUF remaining bullish HUF over medium term. Our preference is to keep short PLNHUF which provides more protection against a Russia escalation.

EM VOL TRADING (OZER) Flows in HUF have generally been quite light. Some of that is likely a function of people running out of premium to spend, some of it is people feeling pain in local rates, and some of it obviously a function of just reduced conviction going into winter with Nat gas and crude prices where they are. What little new interest we see for downside is either strictly low premium gamma downside (presumably for the sake of people not wanting to stop into a potential break lower) or mid- dated leveraged downside (to get budget announcement that is stated to take place sometime around mid- October)

CHART 1: The trend higher in EUR/HUF spot and fair value tracks closely the increase in relative prices between Hungary and the Euro Area

2) US ECONOMICS (RINDELS) A Broader Energy Shock

BOTTOM LINE: Brent oil prices have rebounded from an average of $85/barrel in June and July to $100 today, and a key feature of this year's energy shock is that prices of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel have risen disproportionately due to disruptions to refining capacity. Our…