GS Crook Thoughts from the Floor Connecting You to GS

GS Crook - Thoughts from the Floor Connecting You to GS 19 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · Global Banking & Markets FICC & Equities Sat 19 Sep 2026, 3:03am EDT

Themes resonating with global clients at the moment and GS views/thinking on the topics. Reach out if there are comments, opinions and/or ideas you wa

Themes resonating with global clients at the moment and GS views/thinking on the topics. Reach out if there are comments, opinions and/or ideas you want to discuss with the people below.

1) Connecting you to GS: Soundbites from the GCEM Virtual Macro Symposium; How are you thinking about the Fed path into year-end + 2027, and what were your major take-aways from the FOMC decision, the statement + the press conference last week? The FOMC appeared reasonably united + gave the impression of prioritising its price stability mandate– Could the meeting provide a real ballast for the long- end? A lot of clients have portfolios that could be adversely impacted by a spike in oil, say to $125+, what catalysts are you watching + what circumstances could unlock the real right-tail in oil? At what level of TTF + energy prices do Central Banks in Europe + CEEMEA start to adjust monetary policy paths because of growth-concerns?

2) Trades we Like: Hedging a Pro-Risk / Carry Book….In client meetings across Central Europe, CEEMEA + the US in the last couple of weeks, I sensed a tangible concentration of positions, across asset-classes, that would all be materially challenged by a significant right-tail move in oil + energy prices -> Long EM Carry, long Frontier-FX, Long Equities/Tech, Received positions in a number of EM Local markets.. This, to me, feels like the key vulnerability in market-positioning.

In a world where global growth is strong, FX/Rates realised vol remains contained, and a credible Fed caps long-end Treasury volatility, these positions should continue to perform…. However, with the point of maximum-brinksmanship in the Middle East potentially directly ahead, in to and through the US Mid- terms, it’s worth considering hedges + overlays to protect core-portfolios from the energy right-tail..

i) SPX ‘Look-Back’ Puts contingent on Rates Higher -> Equities typically struggle to digest sharp increases in bond yields (2SD+): A ‘Look-Back Max’ Put sets the strike (in this case 95%) from the high- print in the SPX observed during the life of the option; leveraged downside for a scenario where a spike in oil/energy triggers a sharp sell-off in US/Global duration, and this then has a negative feedback loop in to Equities -> Buy a Dec-26 SPX 95% Look-Back Max Put Contingent on 10y SOFR > 4.8% for 90bps USD (Comparable SPX vanilla LB Max Put = 1.9%; selling Equity/Rates Corr around zero, has regularly released below -60% in last 3 years)

ii) 6mnth 10% USD Calls vs CHF + EUR -> ‘Route-1’ Hedge for a Spike in USD-Rates Vol: When USD Rates Vol spikes, the USD strengthens – A reliable + consistent relationship; the cost of 4% OTM USD

Binary Calls vs EUR + CHF sit at multi-year lows due to low Implied Vols + USD-carry; good decay profile -> structures lose only around 11% (USDCHF) + 24% (EURUSD) of value by critical US mid- terms on 3rd Nov (spot + vol unchanged) -> i) Buy 6mnth 1.1000 EURUSD Binary Put for 9.95% EUR (Max ~10x Leverage); ii) Buy 6mnth 0.8570 USDCHF Binary Call for 9.95% USD

iii) QQQ Lower vs US 10y Yields Higher -> Equities/Tech down vs Yields up the pain scenario: Carry has remained well-subscribed across asset-classes + Funds are struggling to hold onto returns. From here, the pain scenario is equities down / yields up, potentially from: An extended timeline in the Middle East + a sustained move higher in energy; Expectation for AI capex numbers growing; and/or slowing pace in model development + regulatory concerns for AI -> i) Buy a Dec-26 Dual Binary QQQ < 95% vs 10ySOFR > FCMS+0.25% for 9% USD (Max ~11x leverage); ii) Buy a Mar-27 Tri-Binary QQQ < 90% vs 10ySOFR > FCMS+0.25% vs COK7 >120% for 5% USD (Max ~20x leverage.

iv) Buy 1-3mnth Brent Crude Calls -> Receding Implieds making topside in Brent attractive again as a Geo-political Hedge: We like 1-3mth tenor outright Brent Cllas + Call Spreads given implied vol is…