GS Garber GS Global Equities Call

GS Garber - GS Global Equities Call 22 Sep 2026 Chloe Garber · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Tue 22 Sep 2026, 7:11am ET

Here's what we're focused on this morning:

US futures quiet (SPX +10bps // NDX +10bps // RTY +50bps) after a strong AI lead rally yday (AI Semis +5%, AI Software Infrastructure +4.8%, NeoClouds +6%, Mag7 +3.2%, High Beta TMT Momentum Pair +1.7%...SMH -25bps pre-mkt, META -30bps pre-mkt).

Overnight news focused on Middle East optimism after a report from Japan's Kyodo that Iran apparently offered to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if US takes initial steps toward easing military pressure and RTRS reporting an Iranian senior official said the Iranian delegation in New York has full authority to revive diplomacy with the US. Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline and said that they are preparing to resume oil exports from Yanbu Port today which is also helping Crude retreat (WTI -2.6% @ $93.30) along with UST yields (2yr -3bps @ 4.715% // 10yr -2.5bps @ 4.925% // 30yr -2bps @ 5.265%).

Trump is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly today (~10am EST) along with meeting various Gulf officials in the afternoon. Elsewhere, Macro: US API Crude Inventories, Eurozone consumer confidence, UN General Assembly annual general debate, US Treasury Market Conference at NY Fed, Trump speaking at UN General Assembly @ 9:55 AM, Trump meeting UK's Burnham @ 11:45 AM, Trump meeting Japan's Takaichi @ 12:30 PM, $69bn 2yr auction @ 1 PM, Trump meeting Ukraine's Zelenskyy @ 1:15 PM // Fed: Williams (Voter, 10:05 AM), Jefferson (Voter, 10:20 AM), Barkin (non- voter, 1 PM) // Micro: ONON, FSLY, PATH Investor Days, Bank of America Financials CEO Conference (through 9/24), JPM All Stars Conference (through 9/24), EPS Pre: AZO

Privo on Risk: Yesterday felt like proper FOMO (spot up vol up...in NDX)... after weeks where everybody has been sitting around worrying about energy, rates, AI capex, politics and everything else. Ok in fairness, I took a couple chips off in that NDX move but generally constructive view hasn't changed. The inference economy looks like it is accelerating and I'd expect every major provider to ship some version of Muse. Hard to believe the end state is one dominant personal agent. At the frontier you still have likely releases coming from the major labs and the broader direction remains one way. The original investment case for frontier AI was ultimately that intelligence gets dramatically better. I don't see evidence that thesis has broken. So maybe the second order trade is simpler than we're making it: long bottlenecks, rails, proprietary data and genuine differentiation. avoid economic rents derived from human friction. Big picture spending economy rages on. high nominal growth, embedded inflation, higher real rates and very little room for defensives if the growth impulse keeps holding. Stay cautiously optimistic on an oil resolution. Watch the front end and belly of real rates. Biggest confirmation from here would be the cyclical impulse finally turning higher alongside tech. Watching Williams today

Global Views: Lower Inflation, Limited Hikes

- We see three fundamental reasons for the Fed's hawkish turn, which has upended our prior forecast of no hikes this year. First, renewed escalation risks in the Middle East have driven up the prices of crude oil and especially refined products , with diesel and jet fuel back to the 2022 highs. Second, the activity news has beaten expectations, with real GDP growth tracking 3.3% in Q3 and nonfarm payrolls rising 162k in August. Third, the August CPI and PPI data suggest that core PCE rose 0.27% last month, somewhat above pre-CPI expectations.

- While the quarterly numbers fluctuate, underlying US GDP growth remains near its 2.3% potential and thus consistent with a stable labor market. The US economy is bifurcated, with strength among upper- income consumers and AI-exposed sectors-including firms that benefit from the data center buildout-but slow growth elsewhere. And despite the stronger-than-expected August retail sales report, we still expect consumer spending to soften because of slow nominal wage growth, higher gas prices, and the waning tax refund boost.