GS Hafif Flow of Funds Flash Update

GS Hafif - Flow of Funds Flash Update 17 Sep 2026 Gail Hafif · Goldman Sachs · Analyst, FICC & Equities Thu 17 Sep 2026, 2:02pm ET

Yesterday's post-fed move brought questions around systematic supply back to the forefront. With positioning still fairly neutral and anxiety remaining around the macro picture, CTA activity holds heavier weight in this market.

As of yesterday's close, we were less than 1.1% away from the SPX CTA short-term threshold levels with SPX up that amount today. Overtaking this threshold would shift our current estimates in the near-term and begin to dry up some systematic supply should it hold.

Flat tape: Sellers $30.09B ($5.7B out of the US)

Up tape: Sellers $3.12B ($3.08B into the US)

Down tape: Sellers $55.28B ($14.26B out of the US)

Flat tape: Sellers $28.72B ($10.15B out of the US)

Up tape: Buyers $87.76B ($26.25B into the US)

Down tape: Sellers $199.06B ($72B out of the US)

That being said, the amount of inbounds this week and vol market indicators underscored just how nervous investors are here. Gamma positioning isn't terribly supportive for US equities, and we suspect systematic activity will remain a focus especially in the face of any reversals.

Coming into today, we estimate CTAs are long $37.54bn of US equities (22nd percentile on 1y lookback). Current flow estimates are dramatic, especially given overall exposure, but we anticipate today's move will moderate some of these flows. Over the next month we have CTAs as sellers of $5.4bn SPX in an flat tape versus SELLERS of $54bn in a down tape and BUYERS of $17bn in an up tape.