GS Housing Market Activity Scale Week of September 13 Scale Down 2 Sequentially Led by Decline in Sales and Purchase Appli...

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 12:01AM EDT

GS HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY SCALE

Week of September 13: Scale Down 2% Sequentially Led by Decline in Sales and Purchase Applications as Rates Hit a New 52-Week High

Sales and Purchase Applications Susan Maklari Exhibit 1: GS Housing Activity Weekly Scale | Holds at 4 Decline Amidst Rising Rates: For the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Week of 09/13/26 week of September 13, the index was Charles Perron-Piche, CFA down 2% sequentially and off 3% YOY, | charles.perron- putting it 24% below the long-term Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

average. The sequential move was Rhea Bhatia | primarily led by a 5% decrease in sales Goldman Sachs India SPL

and a 1% decline in purchase Galilee Best | applications. This was partially offset by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC an improvement in median days on market and a 1% decline in active listings while the mortgage rate rose Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19bps to reach a new 52-week high at 6.95%. We note the recent volatility in readings is consistent with the broader macro and our channel checks that suggest weak activity entering fall. Given the setup, we are focused on names with company-specific initiatives, including the potential for capital allocation, and highlight Buy-rated IBP. Should conditions for the builders improve, we see the greatest upside to MTH and DHI given their exposure to the entry-level along with a disciplined approach to balancing margins and uses of cash. How it Works: In developing the scale, we went back over 50 years of data to determine averages, outliers, and differing operating environments. As such, a reading of 5 is in line with historical norms while a 0 represents the weakest market we have seen—outside of the financial crisis—in March 1982. Given the magnitude of the run-up in housing, the mid-2000s read greater than 10, while the depths of the financial crisis were below 0. This reflects our view that the activity seen then is unlikely to reoccur given economic and industry-specific dynamics including labor, supply chains, and company-specific strategies.

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Goldman Sachs GS Housing Market Activity Scale

Exhibit 2: Scale Holds at 4 for Week of September 13

Weekly Scale Monthly Scale LT Average

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly Scale at 4 for July

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research