GS Housing Market Activity Scale Week of September 6 Scale is Flat Sequentially as Rates Hit a New 52 Week High, Offsetting...

Equity Research 15 September 2026 | 12:01AM EDT

GS HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY SCALE

Week of September 6: Scale is Flat Sequentially as Rates Hit a New 52-Week High, Offsetting Growth in Sales

Improvement in Sales Offset by Rising Susan Maklari Exhibit 1: GS Housing Activity Weekly Scale | Holds at 4 Rates While Other Key Indicators are Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Week of 09/06/26 Flat: For the week of September 6, the Charles Perron-Piche, CFA index was flat sequentially and YOY, | charles.perron- putting it 22% below the long-term Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

average. The sequential move was led Rhea Bhatia | by a 3% increase in home sales along Goldman Sachs India SPL

with an improvement in median new Galilee Best | listing price. This was offset by a Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC moderation in median days on market while the mortgage rate rose another 5bps this week to reach a new 52-week Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research high of 6.76%. We note the recent volatility in readings is consistent with the broader macro and our channel checks that suggest weak activity entering fall. Given the setup, we are focused on names with company-specific initiatives, including the potential for capital allocation, and highlight Buy-rated IBP. Should conditions for the builders improve, we see the greatest upside to MTH and DHI given their exposure to the entry-level along with a disciplined approach to balancing margins and uses of cash. How it Works: In developing the scale, we went back over 50 years of data to determine averages, outliers, and differing operating environments. As such, a reading of 5 is in line with historical norms while a 0 represents the weakest market we have seen—outside of the financial crisis—in March 1982. Given the magnitude of the run-up in housing, the mid-2000s read greater than 10, while the depths of the financial crisis were below 0. This reflects our view that the activity seen then is unlikely to reoccur given economic and industry-specific dynamics including labor, supply chains, and company-specific strategies.

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Goldman Sachs GS Housing Market Activity Scale

Exhibit 2: Scale Holds at 4 for Week of September 6 10

Weekly Scale Monthly Scale LT Average

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly Scale at 4 for July

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research