GS Johnstone GS TMT SPEC SALES AI & Semis Security debate Classified names make a comeback Consumer Agents ACN & Anthropic

GS Johnstone - GS TMT SPEC SALES AI & Semis Security debate Classified names make a comeback Consumer Agents ACN & Anthropic 21 Sep 2026 Sean Johnstone · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities 21 Sep 2026

GS TMT SPEC SALES – Monday 21st September

AI and semis remain the main market focus, with last week’s sell-off looking more like a positioning reset than a fundamental break. The debate is shifting toward AI safety, security and liability, with Anthropic, Google, Accenture and US-China policy all in focus, while SoftBank’s debt raise to fund OpenAI keeps AI-credit risk on watch. Memory starting to see renewed interest helped by tight HBM/DRAM/NAND supply and improving pricing, though CXMT adds medium-term China supply risk. Elsewhere, AI disruption debates spreading into classifieds, online gambling and telcos, while this week’s key catalysts include the Trump/Xi summit, Meta Connect and a busy slate of investor days.

VW warned on Friday post close -ve read to IFX and DSY (precloses are starting to come out and Q3 sounds in-linish with Q4 needing to accelerate further to hit street. Bigger catalyst is CMD on the 17th Nov) - Volkswagen cut FY26 guidance on weaker China and BEV performance, compounded by c.€8bn incremental one-offs. IFX: limited direct impact — VW is likely MSD% of group revenue, largely Tier 1- intermediated, and the driver here is impairment mechanics, not build rates. The risk is second-order: softer China/BEV volumes and slower European EV mix feed the power-semi content story, vs. Datacentre upside. DSY: more relevant to sentiment than numbers — previews away point to an in line Q but €2bn of restructuring invites scrutiny of OEM software and engineering budgets into the 28 Oct print.

Last Monday’s AI/semis sell-off felt more like a positioning and macro air-pocket than a real change in fundamentals. The move was initially sparked by Dario’s “pace the frontier” essay and then amplified by higher oil and rates, but the scale looked overdone: it was the biggest one-day semis sell-off since October 2024 and the largest Software-versus-Semis move on record, despite no comparable negative weekend catalyst. As the week progressed, the AI safety debate also became less negative for compute, with investors increasingly viewing safer AI as likely to require more compute for testing, alignment and deployment — not less. Fundamentals still look solid, supply remains tight, the GS TMT conference reinforced strong demand, and recent data points argue against a broad capex slowdown: Nebius is raising on-demand GPU prices from 1 October, H100s still retain 58% of purchase price after four years, and OpenAI disclosed that safety monitoring uses roughly 20% as much compute as the underlying rollout. Against that backdrop, the de-risking now looks largely done, positioning is cleaner, and any regrossing should favour quality AI infrastructure names first, particularly ASML and ASMI, with SEMICON on 13– 15 October a potential positive catalyst.

This week, focus is on Trump / Xi summit which will be Xi's first trip to the US since 2023. Watching a handful of investor days (NVO Mon; ONON, FSLY, PATH Tues; MCD, AUR Wed; and SHW Thurs) as well as META’s Connect Developer Conference (Wed-Thurs) with focus on Zuckerberg’s presentation on Wed.

Reuters reported that Anthropic is weighing a new model launch to counter OpenAI’s momentum, even after CEO Dario Amodei called for slower AI capability releases on safety grounds. The pressure is building as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra gains enterprise and developer traction, prompting some IPO investors to question whether Anthropic’s enterprise AI lead is narrowing. Anthropic is also weighing safety trade- offs and profitability as higher rates sharpen investor focus on cash-flow timing, with reports that its IPO may slip to November from the October timing the market expected, annualised revenue could exceed $100bn by year-end, and OpenAI may burn nearly $280bn of cash between 2026 and 2030.

Softbank watch their CDS this week as SoftBank launches >$10bn notes to fund OpenAI third tranche. ). Proceeds fund the $10bn third tranche of the OpenAI follow-on (close ~1 Oct) and general corporate. Cancels the…