GS Lee GS Crypto Weekly Recap CLARITY Again

GS Lee - GS Crypto: Weekly Recap CLARITY Again 14 Sep 2026 Kenny Lee · Goldman Sachs · Associate, FICC & Equities, Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Mon 14 Sep 2026, 6:02am ET

The macro backdrop continues to weigh on both crypto and broader risk assets. Bond yields have sold off globally, with forwards across both bonds and swap curves near multi-decade highs across several markets (GIR). Energy prices have also been moving higher, while the beta of rates to energy prices remain elevated. Last Friday's August core CPI print came in above expectations (GIR), pushing market-implied September rate-hike probabilities to around 85%. GIR economists now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC, not necessarily because of a change in our fundamental inflation view, but because the Committee is unlikely to want to surprise markets at this stage (GIR). From the previous Friday's close to Monday Asia trading, BTC is down 2.72%, ETH is up 2.56%, gold is down 2.34%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed 0.80% and 0.60% lower, respectively (Bloomberg).

ETH's relative outperformance is notable. While equities, BTC, and gold all moved higher intraday following the CPI release, potentially due to greater certainty around the direction of rates (GIR), that strength did not hold equally across assets. BTC briefly reached an intraday high of $79.8k on Friday, a 4.96% move from the session low, but that move was faded and spot retraced to $77.6k by Monday. ETH, by contrast, rose to $2.6k on Friday, its highest level since January, and has since pulled back only modestly to around $2.5k, still above last week's range (Bloomberg). ETF flows have been broadly consistent with the divergence in spot performance. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded outflows in every session last week, totaling -$463m (Bloomberg). U.S. spot ETH ETFs, meanwhile, continued to attract inflows, with a strong $216m print on Friday bringing weekly net inflows to +$197m (Bloomberg).

This week brings another important set of events. The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for 15 September, while the FOMC meets on 15-16 September. On Monday morning in Asia, Senate Republicans released the "final" draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which they said incorporates "substantive changes" requested by Democrats (The Block). President Trump was also reported to have agreed to ethics restrictions in the bill that would limit crypto-related dealings by officials and their spouses. Stablecoin rewards, previously a key sticking point in negotiations, also appear to have been addressed. Under the latest draft, the Treasury secretary would have authority to impose a circuit-breaker on stablecoin rewards for up to 18 months after enactment, if stablecoins were deemed to be driving substantial deposit outflows from community banks. Following the draft's release, market-implied odds of the bill passing this year rose from 22% to 32% on Polymarket (The Block).

Perpetual futures (perps) funding on BTC rose even as spot retraced last week (Figure 1), suggesting that participants in the perps market were fading the pullback. By contrast, front-month BTC basis on CME continued to compress, closing at 4.20% on Friday vs 5.81% the week before (CME)- a divergence

between the 2 markets. Across options, BTC & ETH 25d risk reversals remain positive (Figure 2 & 3), and continue to avoid the put premium that characterized much of the year.